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New England Weather This Week: Showery

It'll be a chilly start to the week with a wetter end to the week. Unsettled conditions will return Tuesday afternoon and gradually become more widespread until a steadier rain comes into the picture for Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures will also be on the rise as the unsettled Weather moves in.


MONDAY & TUESDAY


On Monday, New England will be situated between high pressure to the north and low pressure well offshore. This will create a chilly northeast breeze, though winds will not be all that strong. Gusts of 20-30mph will be possible on Monday for southern New England. Northern New England will see much lighter winds thanks to the closer proximity to the high pressure.


The general northeast flow will keep temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday on the chilly side. Highs will be similar to this past weekend, with 30s across much of northern New England (except the lower elevations, which could get into the 40s) and the 40s across all of southern New England.



Monday will be dry, but Tuesday will see some moisture from the cutoff coastal storm well offshore get pulled back toward New England. This will lead to a cloudier day Tuesday with some scattered showers developing across eastern New England. These showers will be most numerous near the coast and will become more isolated as you push inland and west. These showers will be light and scattered around.


The showers will push farther inland as the afternoon and evening go on. Cold air damming across portions of Maine and New Hampshire may allow for these showers to fall as freezing rain. If precipitation is able to begin before temperatures at the surface can rise above freezing, then some icing will be possible. Icing is looking to remain light, but could be nuisance-level, especially after the ice storm that occurred on Saturday night.


Probability of a trace of ice by Wednesday morning. Probabilities drop to basically 0 when going up to a tenth of an inch:



WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY


Starting Tuesday night, the area of low pressure responsible for the blizzard in the central United States will begin to lift northeastward. This system will pass well to New England's north, but will still drag its cold front across the region. The front will be approaching on Wednesday, which in combination with the cutoff coastal low, will keep the clouds and showers around.


Showers Wednesday will generally remain light and scattered and could be more like drizzle for much of the day. This setup will allow more mild air to advect into New England, boosting temperatures into the 40s north and 50s south. Just how mild it gets across northern New England is tough to say as temperatures don't often rise as quickly as guidance suggests in this kind of setup. Cooler air at the surface will be stubborn to erode away.


Euro showing potential weather Wednesday morning:


By Wednesday night, the cold front will likely have crossed into New England. Typical with spring, the front does look to slow to a crawl or stall out just to the east of New England for Thursday. This will allow an area of low pressure to ride along the front on Thursday, which will likely lead to more widespread and steadier rain as the two interact and enhance each other.




Exactly how everything sets up will determine rainfall amounts as well as how far west into New England the rainfall pushes. Eastern areas and areas closer to the coast will have the best chance at seeing the most rain with amounts generally tapering as you head west. A sharp cutoff in precipitation amounts is likely. Again, exactly where this sharp cutoff sets up will be determined by the cold front's exact position over the region. Eastern areas will have a chance to see an inch or more of rain.


Current expected QPF (rain & melted snow) for Thursday morning through Friday morning:


The bulk of the rain is currently looking to end for most by Friday morning, but showers may linger for much of the day. The back-end of this system could produce some snow for eastern Maine Friday night. Overall, how all of this plays out will likely be tweaked during this week as plenty of uncertainties do remain. This is just the general idea for now.


WEEKEND


It is currently looking like all of this will move out in time for Easter weekend, setting up a dry holiday. It will likely be blustery at best and windy at worst as the storm system pulls away. Temperatures will likely fall back to at least seasonable levels. Overall, how the weekend shapes up will be determined by the timing of the Thursday system, which still needs to be worked out to a point.


Current weather map for Saturday morning showing the storm system over Nova Scotia, setting up blustery weather for the weekend:


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