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New England Weather This Week: Stable Start; Unsettled End

This week will start off as a continuation of what we've been seeing over the past several days. The pattern will be shifting for the second half of the week and into the weekend, however.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY


The start of the work week will generally be a continuation of the weekend's weather. That is to say a cutoff low will remain spinning near Nova Scotia with high pressure near New England. This will produce weather very similar to what was seen over the weekend with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 80s for western New England.


For eastern portions of New England, a backdoor cold front will create an onshore flow. This will stall temperatures in the 70s for Monday and Tuesday with 60s right at the coast. The coastal plain will likely see high temperatures reached around midday on Monday with falling afternoon temperatures. Tuesday will likely see highs once again achieved around midday before temperatures stall for the afternoon.



Wednesday will likely see the onshore back off, allowing the coastal plain to reach warmer temperatures, similar to western New England, once again. The exception to this will be the immediate coast line.



As far as precipitation chances, Monday may see a quick, isolated shower in the mountains. Tuesday will likely see a few more showers or storms develop than Monday. This will once again be centered over the higher terrain with the Connecticut River Valley also potentially seeing a couple quick showers.


HRRR showing potential weather Tuesday afternoon:


On Wednesday, a system begins to approach from the west. While this system will remain well to New England's west during the day, cyclonic flow will be developing throughout the day. This could help ignite more scattered afternoon showers. The greatest chance for showers will be in the mountains once again, where the elevation will aid in forcing. Many areas outside the mountains will likely stay dry all day.


CMC showing scattered showers popping up, mainly in the mountains, Wednesday afternoon:


THURSDAY & FRIDAY


The aforementioned system to the west arrives for New England Wednesday night into Thursday. The system will pass to the north of New England with its fronts getting dragged through New England. This comes as the ridge in the jet stream shifts eastward with New England reverting back to troughing.



Just how much of Thursday will feature a steady, widespread rain versus lighter, scattered showers remains a point of contention. Either way trends go, Thursday will be unsettled and wet at times. At this point, thunderstorm development doesn't look widespread, but some isolated storms could pop up within the showers.



The main threat with this system will be the chance for heavy downpours to be embedded within the showers. The system will hang around the area given the blocky pattern. This could, in turn, lead to slow moving downpours.


Euro showing potential weather Thursday afternoon. This remains one of the wetter models, others show less showers and more dry times between the showers (the point of contention we mentioned before):


As of now, Thursday looks to be the wettest day of the week, however, the low pressure system to the north will cutoff and linger around for several days. This will keep the unsettled weather around for Friday and into the weekend. As long as this system remains around New England, it will rotate waves of showers into the region. Temperatures look to be mainly seasonable during this time with 70s dominating. Humidity will tick up as well.


Given the potential scattered nature of showers, downpours and thunderstorms, rainfall totals may end up pretty varied across New England. As of now, a quarter of an inch to an inch of rain is looking likely through Saturday morning. Northern New England currently stands to see the most rainfall. Eastern Maine will be furthest removed from the system, so they will see the least. Total rainfall is not locked in yet, and there is room for amounts to trend higher this week.


Expected rainfall through Saturday morning:


WEEKEND


The weekend will likely be a continuation of Friday's weather with mainly cloudy skies and periods of unsettled weather wrapping into New England. This will come amid a classic ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern expected to develop for the second half of this week and beyond (which we mentioned would happen in our June outlook for New England). At this point, the weekend doesn't look washed out, but it certainly won't be a repeat of this past weekend. Temperatures will likely end up on the cooler side of average.


500mb height anomaly on Sunday showing the trough over the east with a ridge building in the west:


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