This week will feature a generally progressive pattern with multiple high and low pressure systems moving through the area. Overall, the high pressure looks to win out with another quiet, mainly dry week ahead.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
The start of this week will be a continuation of the overall setup that has been in place since late last week. That is high pressure to the north of New England and low pressure to the south. The area of high pressure will remain in charge, keeping the low to the south and New England dry. Overall, quiet weather and mostly seasonable temperatures are expected.
This setup does allow the onshore flow to continue, which will help keep temperatures coolest along the coast. The flow will also help generate clouds, though it won't be overcast. The gradient between the high and low will tighten somewhat on Tuesday, leading to cooler temperatures and more of a breeze.
Flow pattern around midday Tuesday:
WEDNESDAY
A couple days ago, it was looking as if New England would see another widespread rain event around the middle of this week. Over the past 36 hours or so, the forecast during this time has continued to point in a drier direction. The main cause of this drying trend has been for an approaching frontal system to slow down and weaken due to the high pressure north of New England. Not only will the high pressure allow the front from the west to weaken and dry out, it will continue to keep low pressure well to the south of New England.
On Wednesday, the cold front will slowly push through New England during the day and into Wednesday night. As stated above, the front will be weakening as it does so, leading to very spotty showers or sprinkles later in the day. These will be most likely across northern and western New England. It does look like most of New England will remain completely dry during this time.
Current rainfall forecast through Thursday morning:
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
On Thursday, what's left of the front will slide through Maine with high pressure building in from the southwest, which will remain in place for Friday. This will allow for the dry weather to continue through the late week. The position of the high will also allow for a break from the persistent onshore flow as wind direction will generally be from the southwest.
With this direction, combined with the building ridge, temperatures will take a jump. It certainly won't go full summer mode, but widespread 70s will replace widespread 60s. Interior areas of southern New England and the valleys of northern New England could push well into the 70s.
WEEKEND
This week will feature a fairly progressive flow, with low pressure and high pressure systems continuing to move through the region. After the stint with high pressure to end the work week, another frontal system looks to move through for the weekend, likely Friday night into Saturday. This would be the next feature to have a chance to bring wet weather into the region.
Current weather map for Saturday (October 5):
Whether this system will be able to bring widespread, meaningful precipitation or weaken and fall apart like the midweek system remains to be seen. As of now, this system is not expected to bring much by way of rainfall, with no more than a quarter inch being shown anywhere in New England. The progressive pattern should allow high pressure to build back in for Sunday, but this will be contingent on the timing of the frontal system.
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