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New England Weather This Week: Unsettled After Christmas

The good news is that the weather will remain quiet right through Christmas and the following day. After that, though, things get a bit more questionable.


CHRISTMAS & TUESDAY


A weak disturbance that arrived on Christmas Eve will linger into Christmas morning. This will lead to continued scattered, very light rain showers and flurries, mainly in the morning. We'd like to emphasize "very light". Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy for much of the day, but some clearing may occur in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the mid 40s to around 50° in southern New England and the upper 30s to upper 40s in northern New England.


CMC showing light precip. around Christmas morning:


Tuesday will be a near-repeat of Christmas with mainly cloudy skies and mild temperatures, though the day will likely be completely dry. Highs will range from about 40° to the north to about 50° to the south.



WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY


New England's next storm system will likely begin to approach western New England Wednesday afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation will likely come through for most of New England Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Speaking of precipitation, this will very likely be another rain event for New England.


A primary low will likely track north of New England while a secondary low forms near the Mid-Atlantic. This secondary low is looking to track inside the benchmark, possibly over Cape Cod. This will keep mild air locked in place while creating a southerly flow. This will also increase moisture, allowing a widespread rain event.



The good news is that the dynamics with this storm are not really comparable to the last two storms in New England. While moisture in the atmosphere will be high, total rainfall amounts are currently looking to stay below an inch, with an average forecast total of a half an inch. With rivers still running high, any additional rainfall could push them upward, which is why the Weather Prediction Center has much of New England in the "marginal" (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday through Thursday morning.


NBM rainfall forecast through Thursday:



Additionally, the low-level jet (wind speed at about 2,500 feet above sea level) is currently forecast at around 45-55mph. This is far lower than the 80-100mph low-level jet from the previous two storms.


While this storm is looking to be a rain event for New England, trends in the exact track will need to be watched. The best chance of seeing at least some snow out of this system will be in northern Maine.


After the bulk of this storm exits on Thursday morning, New England will remain in a trough and under cyclonic flow. This will lead to continued cloudy skies and unsettled, showery weather for all of Thursday and Friday.


Weather map for Friday:



NEW YEAR'S WEEKEND


The unsettled weather currently looks to end by Saturday as a cold front sweeps through New England, but I wouldn't be surprised if the unsettled weather ended persisting into at least part of Saturday. A ridge and drier weather is currently looking to build into the region for New Year's Eve and Day, but a weak disturbance will have to be watched, especially for northern areas.



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