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New England Weather This Week: Warm Start, Cool, Raw End

Don't get used to Monday and Tuesday's weather. After that brief warm-up, we cool off for the foreseeable future along with a return of clouds and showers.



MONDAY & TUESDAY


A surface cold front will cross New England during the day Monday. Despite the front, the day will be warmer. This is due to the fact that a very warm air mass aloft will be in place and the cold front at the surface will create a westerly flow. This westerly flow will keep the chilly ocean air at bay while allowing the mild temperatures aloft to mix down to the surface. Highs will be in the 70s south and 60s north, with typical warm spots of southern New England potentially pushing 80°, especially on Tuesday.


Temperature departure from average for Tuesday afternoon. You can see a sea breeze influence at the immediate coast keeping things cooler and slightly cooler temperatures for the northern tier as a cooler air mass drops in from the north:


With that said, the amount of warmth that builds in will be partially determined by cloud cover. If overcast skies are stubborn and last into the afternoon Monday, it will likely end up a bit cooler than forecast, especially for eastern areas. Tuesday will see a slightly cooler air mass aloft, but more sun will allow temperatures to warm above Tuesday's levels. The exception to this will be northern Maine, where a backdoor cold front will cool things off a notch.



WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY


After the beginning of the week's two day warm-up, New England returns to the status quo that has been in place. Around mid-week, New England will see the first of multiple waves of low pressure move through New England amid a large-scale trough over the eastern United States. These waves of low pressure will likely travel along a frontal boundary to New England's south. This will lead to unsettled weather, but ultimately unimpactful as the systems remain on the weaker side.



The first wave of low pressure will arrive in western New England for Wednesday morning and spread rain east through the day. While timing in these kinds of set ups is tricky to say the least, much of New England may catch a break from widespread showers much of Thursday before the next low arrives later on Thursday. Still, mainly cloudy skies will persist regardless of how dry (or wet) it ends up being on Thursday.


Euro showing potential weather on Wednesday afternoon (1st image) and Thursday afternoon (2nd image):


The northern tier of New England will be driest during this time as high pressure to the north may eat away at the moisture initially. Northern Maine may not see widespread showers until Friday. Friday is when showers do look to return to much of New England as that system approaching on Thursday traverses the region.


Euro showing potential weather Friday afternoon. There's still plenty of spread in model guidance, so Friday could trend drier as the system moves through earlier or later than what is currently forecast:



That's how timing looks as of now, but as we stated earlier, timing out setups like this is tricky and subject to change. What won't change is that it will be cloudy with multiple rounds of showers Wednesday through Friday. The exact timing on those showers can speed up or slow down. Temperatures will also be getting cooler as the week goes on.


As stated at the beginning of this section, all of this will likely end up being rather unimpactful as it pertains to any flooding or wind concerns. As of now, Wednesday through Friday combined is looking to produce an inch or less of rain for most of New England. Western New England will generally see the most rain.


Expected rainfall through Saturday morning:


WEEKEND


This upcoming weekend forecast is very low confidence right now. With a blocked up pattern, timing shifts late this week will affect the outcome of the weekend. As of now, it looks like the latest storm will pull away from west to east on Saturday morning. A (very) weak area of high pressure may try to squeeze into New England for later Saturday into Sunday. This would lead to a mainly dry period. Even with this, spot showers can't be ruled out, but the weekend certainly isn't looking washed out at this point, either.


Weather map for Saturday morning showing the latest low pressure pulling away. You can also see another low over the Great Lakes. Weak ridging may occur over New England between these two systems, allowing a period of drier weather:


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