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New England Weather This Week: Watching Beryl's Remnants

This week will start off hot and humid. By midweek, more unsettled weather takes over, knocking temperatures down, but humidity will stay elevated. The unsettled weather will be coming thanks to the remnants of Beryl interacting with a trough over the Great Lakes. 


MONDAY


Monday will turn out very similar to Sunday with the general setup remaining in place (a stalled frontal boundary near the coast with high pressure building to the west). With high pressure nearby and deepening dry air aloft, chances for pop-up storms will be even lower than the already low chances from Sunday.



The sea breeze will be stronger than Sunday, keeping the coast noticeably cooler than inland areas. Skies will be partly cloudy with very warm highs once again. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid 80s north to low 90s south. Coastal areas will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A heat Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New England as elevated humidity will push feels-like temps into the upper 90s.



TUESDAY


A persistent ridge over the Atlantic Ocean will remain in place, keeping humidity levels high as a persistent southwest flow continues. A very weak disturbance will pivot around this ridge into New England, bringing an increase in clouds and possibly triggering some afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Forcing will be weak for storms, but there will be plenty of moisture along with sufficient instability, which could allow some strong to severe storms.



This disturbance may help to tamp down high temperatures a bit depending on the exact timing of when storms (and increased clouds) fire up. The atmosphere will remain highly moisturized as dew points remain elevated throughout the week. Any storms that develop could produce torrential downpours.



WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY


The large-scale setup for Wednesday and Thursday features large ridges over the western United States and western Atlantic Ocean with a trough located between these features. This trough will interact with the remnants of Beryl, injecting tropical moisture over New England during this time. The remnants of Beryl will move northeast across the central United States before crossing the northeast.


Euro showing potential weather conditions from Monday morning through Thursday night. You can see Beryl lifting out of Texas and moving into the northeast, bringing a swath of heavy rainfall with it:


As of now, Beryl's remnants are poised to pass just to the north and west of New England. This would center the highest rainfall in New England over Vermont, New Hampshire and western Massachusetts. An eastward trend in Beryl's track would push the higher rainfall farther east.


There are factors that could lead to multiple inches of rain falling with this system (tropical moisture in place, slow moving fronts). A widespread 1-2 inches of rain will be possible, with a more localized swath of 2-3 inches across western New England. An eastward trend in the track is still possible, which would shift the higher totals eastward with it. Any convection development could lead to locally higher amounts.


Current rainfall forecast from now through Friday night. A majority of this is expected to fall from Wednesday through Thursday:



As far as timing goes, the heaviest of the rainfall will likely be from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, moving east-northeastward during the period. This unfortunately lines up perfectly with the one year anniversary of the July 2023 Vermont floods. There’s no need to try to compare these two systems at this time.


Where the swath of heaviest rain sets up remains to be determined as a spread still exists. The placement of the ridge over the Atlantic Ocean will play a role in where exactly the system tracks. Scattered to numerous flash floods will be possible where this swath sets up. As of now, the Weather Prediction Center has all of Vermont along with western New Hampshire and northwest Massachusetts in the “slight” category (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. This will be fine-tuned as more details come into place.


Weather Prediction Center excessive rainfall outlook for July 10-11:


The trough remains in place into Friday, keeping unsettled conditions around with the chance for scattered thunderstorms in place. Both temperature and humidity will remain elevated during this time. 


WEEKEND


The trough should eventually weaken and lift northeast away from New England. This would lead to a drying trend as the weekend progresses. This means it could be similar to last weekend with more clouds and thunderstorm chances on Saturday with a more stable Sunday. Temperatures will likely remain around where you’d expect them to be heading into mid-July with plenty of 80s and the potential for some 90s.


Weather map for Saturday morning, showing the trough pulling northeast of New England and a cold front draped over the region:


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