After a nice break from the wet weather experienced this summer, New England is going right back into familiar territory. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible throughout much of this upcoming week. We're also continuing to monitor Hurricane Lee, which will likely make its pass at New England this weekend.
MONDAY
The frontal boundary that has been stalled over New England since Friday will continue its extremely slow march out of the region today. This will lead to another day of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A difference with today is that an area of low pressure will ride along the front, leading to more widespread rain for southern and central New England.
The northern third of New England will remain the driest today. Elsewhere, locally heavy downpours will be possible as the atmosphere is very primed for torrential rainfall. Rainfall totals will likely be similar to Sunday, with a widespread half an inch to an inch of rain with locally higher amounts up to three to four inches.
With a lot of rain possible in a short amount of time, especially on top of what has fallen over the past couple days, flash flooding could become an issue today. While widespread problems aren't anticipated, scattered flash floods could crop up as they did Sunday. A flood watch is in effect for eastern Massachusetts (minus Cape Cod and the islands) from 11am through tonight. Storm training (when multiple storms move over the same area) is also a possibility.
TUESDAY
Tuesday will see just a bit of improvement. Skies will remain overcast for most, although some areas could see some breaks in the clouds. Tuesday, especially Tuesday morning, will be a very gloomy day with thick clouds, fog and drizzly weather. Some scattered, light showers will be possible all day long.
Euro model showing scattered showers Tuesday afternoon. You can also see the next system approaching from the west:
WEDNESDAY
On Wednesday, New England's wet pattern rolls right along as an area of low pressure moving to the region's north will drag its associated cold front across the region. This will lead to another day of rain, which could be a widespread soaking. There will likely be scattered thunderstorms embedded within the system, bringing the possibility for torrential downpours and strong wind gusts.
There remains some uncertainty about just how quickly this system will move through New England. The speed of this system will determine the flash flood threat level. The system has been trending faster, which would help limit flooding issues, but until the speed of the system can be hammered down, a general risk of flash floods will remain. The speed of the system will also have big implications on the track of Hurricane Lee, which we'll get to in a moment.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
Some showers may linger into Thursday morning, with conditions drying out for the afternoon. After the passage of the cold front, New England's humidity levels will finally drop to more seasonable levels. High temperatures will be seasonable as well.
WEEKEND: WATCHING LEE
A full report on Hurricane Lee was posted yesterday, this can be read here. An updated full report will come this evening. Below highlights some of the current trends.
There has been a concerning shift in some model guidance as it pertains to Hurricane Lee's track today. A growing number of models are starting to show the storm take a slight westward bend toward New England this weekend. A vast majority of models continue to keep Lee offshore of New England and making landfall in Nova Scotia.
The timing of New England's mid-week storm in relation to the timing Hurricane Lee's bend to the north will ultimately decide how close the storm gets to New England. Right now, the highest area of concern in the region is Downeast Maine.
The highest level of confidence in relation to the storm is that New England will see rough surf and rip currents. Just how rough the surf is will be determined by how close the hurricane gets to the region.
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