New England has officially entered its third different blocking pattern of the spring. The difference with this block is that it will bring warm and dry conditions to the region rather than cool and stormy weather, like the previous two blocks did. This block is called a "Rex Block" and is a rather atypical pattern.
So what exactly is a Rex Block? It's a rather atypical weather pattern that involves an area of high pressure that sets up directly (or nearly directly) north of a closed low pressure system (which is a low that has a clear center of circulation). This set up leads to more mild and dry conditions in the northern area and cooler and unsettled in the southern area. With that said, onto the all important holiday weekend forecast:
SATURDAY: WARMTH BEGINS
After a slightly cool Friday, New England will be under the full influence of the blocking pattern. Temperatures will shoot well into the 70s and 80s. The coast will be cooler, but a westerly wind will even allow the immediate shoreline to hit 70. Starting Saturday, it will be nothing but sunshine for most of New England.
Saturday's forecast with the elements of the Rex Block highlighted:
SUNDAY: WARMTH PEAKS
Sunday will pretty much be a repeat of Saturday with one big difference: temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees warmer as high pressure continues to build. Despite the continued offshore flow, the sea breeze along the immediate coast will be stronger as a frontal boundary begins to form (this boundary will become important tomorrow). Again, it will still manage to get into the mid to upper 70s at most beaches, although temperatures will drop off quicker in the late afternoon at the shoreline compared to inland.
MONDAY: COLD FRONT
That frontal boundary that came into the picture offshore of New England on Sunday will swing through New England on Monday. This will lead to noticeably cooler temperatures across eastern New England and northern Maine. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s to low 70s across eastern New England with beaches likely failing to make it to 70. Highs will likely only be able to rise 4-8 degrees from mild morning lows on Monday morning. Since this is a backdoor front (a front that moves east to west instead of the typical west to east), western New England will remain warm, reaching into the mid to upper 70s.
A clear backdoor cold front is seen on Monday's surface map:
TUESDAY: EAST WARMING BACK UP
Tuesday will begin a major warming trend. Highs will climb to seasonable levels with sunny skies continuing. Western New England will get noticeably warmer than eastern New England as a continued easterly wind pushes the sea breeze inland. Beaches will remain cool, with highs in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: FULL SUMMER HEAT
Starting mid-week, New England gets the first taste of real, full summer heat since...well, since those two days in the middle of April. Winds will be coming out of the west once again, allowing the heat all the way to the coast. All of New England with the exception of Cap Cod will be looking at the 80s. Thursday will likely be even hotter, with the first 90 degree day possible for some (again, first 90 for those that didn't hit it on that rogue April Friday). What there won't be on these days is full summer humidity. While there will be some humidity, overall, it doesn't look oppressive at this time.
NBM guidance on apparent temperature for Thursday afternoon:
Based on current guidance, it does appear that frosts are done for the season. There have been many frost advisories this spring but, barring an extraordinary event, it's time to plant. It is Memorial Weekend after all.
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