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New England Weekend Weather (and beyond): Unsettled, But no Washout

New England's heat relief has been very slowly inching its way toward the region. This relief has arrived, but now its stalled over New England. While this will lead to cooler temperatures over the weekend, humidity will remain elevated and conditions will be unsettled.




SATURDAY


The cold front shown above will sink into New England from the northwest by Friday night. The front will slowly inch southeastward throughout the weekend. Areas north of this front will see lower temperatures, lower humidity and less shower and storm activity.


As of now, it looks like the front will be situated right across the center of New England. This means there will be scattered thunderstorms and showers from central New England southward, with northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine seeing less activity. There's still a chance for isolated showers in these areas, but the chances are not nearly as high as central and southern New England.




As for timing, there will likely be some showers and storms around in the morning before becoming more numerous as we head into the afternoon. The day will not be a washout, there will very likely be plenty more dry hours than wet hours and the afternoon storms will likely be scattered in nature, so not everyone will see a storm on Saturday.


As for strong to severe storms, the ingredients are not really there for widespread, or even scattered severe storms. Isolated strong storms are most likely across southern Vermont, central New Hampshire and southwest Maine. A rogue storm could go severe anywhere in the region, but a severe weather outbreak certainly isn't expected.


In between the showers and storms, there will be more clouds than sun. This will help keep temperatures lower than what they've been all week long. Areas south of the cold front will see temperatures rise to the low to mid 80s while the northern third of New England will be held to the mid 70s. Humidity will remain elevated for central and southern New England.



SUNDAY


Sunday will be very similar to Saturday as the frontal boundary remains draped over New England, though slightly further to the south. The day will see the chance for showers and storms throughout the day. This does NOT mean Sunday will be a washout. Like Saturday, there will likely be plenty of dry times mixed in for most areas between the storms. Clouds could also break between the storms, allowing for some sunshine.


Timing once again boils down to isolated showers and storms in the morning, becoming more numerous as we get into the afternoon. Unlike Saturday, coverage of the scattered showers and storms will encompass all of New England, all the way to the Canadian border. The showers and storms will generally lift from southwest to northeast during the day.


Euro model showing showers and storms scattered all around Sunday afternoon. Don't take all that green as an all day rain:


There is a better chance for multiple rounds of showers and storms to move over the same areas on Sunday. With the very humid air mass remaining in place, any storm could produce locally torrential rainfall. Flash flooding isn't a huge concern as the region has finally had some time to dry out recently, but some isolated issues could arise if storm training is indeed able to develop.


Temperatures will be similar to Saturday, albeit maybe a notch cooler. Highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s in southern New England and the low to upper 70s in northern New England. Humidity will once again be elevated across southern New England.



NEXT WEEK


The frontal boundary will remain stalled over New England through Monday. This will allow a system to ride along it, bringing the chance for a more widespread rain to occur Sunday night through Monday afternoon. It won't necessarily be an all day washout scenario, but showers and storms could be the most widespread out of Saturday, Sunday and Monday.


Weather map for Monday showing an area of low pressure riding the cold front:


The frontal boundary is finally looking to clear the region by Tuesday, offering a brief break from unsettled weather. The next system is looking to approach for the middle to end of next week. This will likely bring more rain and storms back into the picture to wrap up next week.


Humidity will drop off by mid-week for all of New England, but dew points will likely still be in the 60s for parts of southern New England. Temperatures are looking to return to more seasonable levels as well, with 70s dominating.



TRACKING THE TROPICS


Hurricane Lee is now a monster category five storm with sustained winds at 165mph as of Friday morning. Spaghetti models continue to show a large spread beginning at the 168 hour (1 week) mark, which is expected. No two weather models will ever agree a week out. How close the storm gets to the east coast will be contingent on two things: when the storm begins to bend northward and the timing of the system mentioned above for the end of next week.


The longer it takes for Lee to bend north, the closer it will be able to come to the United States. The system (or trough) that's poised to move through the northeast late next week will likely help aid in keeping the storm offshore. As the system moves west to east through the northeast, it will push Lee away. In the end, this will depend on the timing of both Lee and the system. The overall timing of Lee has slowed down.


Our thought process has not changed over the past few days. That is to say, Lee will likely remain offshore of the United States thanks to the trough over the east. Being over a week out still, we're still in monitoring mode, and nothing is anywhere near being locked in yet.


This is still what we're thinking:





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