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New England Weekend Weather: Slowly Drying Out

The weekend will be off to a very cloudy and wet start, but conditions will gradually improve as the weekend wears on. Here's a look at what to expect (as well as a look at what's going on in the tropics):


SATURDAY


Shortly after Friday's storm begins its slow exit (after continued showers all night Friday night into Saturday morning), a cold front will drop into the region throughout Saturday. This will allow a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop in northern New England in the afternoon. This line will push southeastward during the afternoon, but as it does, the line will likely begin to break apart. By the time it reaches southern New England, there will likely just be some hit-or-miss storms and showers around, not everyone will see a storm Saturday afternoon.


The bulk of the morning showers will likely end by 6am-10am, with western areas finishing earlier and eastern areas finishing later. As stated above, a line of storms will then develop in northern areas by the afternoon. Southern and central New England will likely see a mainly dry Saturday, with some sun poking out through the clouds. The northern tier of New England and possibly Cape Cod will see the most hours of rain on Saturday.


As stated above, the sun could poke out at times in southern and central New England. This will allow temperatures to shoot to the low 80s. With elevated humidity ahead of the approaching cold front, it will remain humid, so the day will certainly feel like summer in these areas. Areas that don't see much (or any) sun between the clouds will be held in the low to mid 70s.



SUNDAY


Our slow drying trend continues to progress on Sunday. High pressure to our north begins to build into the region. Despite this, New England will also remain under the influence of cyclonic flow, meaning some isolated showers could rotate into the region Sunday afternoon. These showers will likely be few and far between. They will remain light and brief. They will be most felt across the northern tier of New England, particularly in higher elevations.


GFS showing a few showers popping up Sunday afternoon:


The day will likely see variable clouds with more sun than Saturday. There will generally be more clouds in northern areas, particularly the higher elevations of Vermont and New Hampshire. With the passage of Saturday's cold front, it will be cooler and less humid. Highs will likely top out in the 70s region-wide.



BEYOND


There are two main features we're watching next week: cool weather and a potential storm system mid-week. First off, New England is looking to remain on the cooler side. 70s will once again dominate highs for the week. Early in the week will be divided as western areas may get close to 80 Monday and Tuesday while eastern areas are kept cooler. The entire region is looking to cool down by mid to late week.


The second feature is an area of low pressure looking to track across New England around the middle of the week. This system could bring another round of rain and thunderstorms to New England possibly late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will also help keep Hurricane Franklin well offshore. The big question is whether or not Franklin comes close enough to inject some tropical moisture into the storm system crossing New England.


Storm crossing New England around mid-week. You can see Hurricane Franklin on the right, passing offshore:



TRACKING THE TROPICS


Hurricane Franklin's forecast track has not changed much at all over the past couple days. As stated above, it will pass well offshore of New England as the region is likely hit with an unrelated storm system around mid-week. The hurricane will likely send large swells and rip currents into New England, with Rhode Island, the Cape and islands and Maine coasts seeing the biggest impacts.


Wave height forecast for Wednesday afternoon (dark blue and purple represent larger swells):


There are three other areas of interest in the Atlantic. The two in the middle of the ocean will have no (immediate) impacts on the United States. The orange X on the map below will need to be watched, but this is a longer term system. Forecast models are currently keeping it below hurricane strength, if it's able to develop.


The red X will likely form into a tropical depression by early next week as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center gives this storm a 70% chance of development as it heads toward Florida. There's model discrepancy on the track and intensity, but a tropical storm could head Florida's way next week.


In the Pacific, an area of interest off Mexico's coast has an 80% chance to develop and may head in the general vicinity of Hawaii. Most forecast models are generally keeping the storm below hurricane strength through the next seven days.





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