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Next Storm May Finally Bring All Snow to Southern New England

It's been a winter of rain, sleet and freezing rain across southern New England so far this season, but as we get ready to close out meteorological winter, a snowstorm may finally come to the area. The storm will move into New England Monday night and will likely linger until Tuesday night.

The primary low will track north of New England through Canada. Normally, this kind of track would bring nothing but rain to all of New England, however, in this case, a secondary low will form off the coast of New England.

This secondary low is key in getting snowfall into New England from this disturbance. The question about snowfall will be based on how developed the secondary low becomes and how close (or far) it tracks to the coastline. The National Weather Service of Boston states:

"There remain a number of uncertainties regarding this system and its complex evolution, and among them include how and where the energy transfer from primary to secondary lows takes place, the track of this secondary low pressure, and the extent to which warmer air aloft could force a changeover to wintry mixed precip along with modifying onshore flow over to perhaps rain for a time."

There are many uncertainties pertaining to the forecast of this storm, so details, including detailed snowfall amounts, are not possible to determine yet. As of right now, the Worcester hills and Berkshires of Massachusetts look to be the jackpot zone. Southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire may also see more significant amounts as well.

The Worcester hills and Berkshires have a 60-70% chance of seeing at least 4 inches of snow based on the NBM (National Blend of Models). NBM currently gives these areas at least a 40% chance for at least 8 inches of snow.

The amount of snowfall will likely taper off as you eastward toward Boston, as well as further north into central Vermont and New Hampshire. The Euro model has pushed the coastal low further south of New England, which would lessen snowfall amounts, but a plowable snow would still occur if the low stays further south. These model discrepancies need to be worked out before any real details can be put out.

While snow will be dominant for most of New England from this storm, there could be some mixing in eastern Massachusetts as well as Connecticut and Rhode Island. There could also be gusty winds, although damaging winds is not expected at this time.

This active pattern continues after this storm, with another storm increasingly likely for Thursday, 3/2. While this storm is very far out, as of now it looks like this one will be much warmer and yet another winter washout for the region.



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