Quick Hits of Snow/Rain Incoming to New England

Throughout the day today, high pressure will shift from being directly overhead to the east of New England. This will set up a weak southerly flow and warm air advection. The overall air mass remains cold, so a notable warm-up is not expected in the afternoon, but it should get a notch warmer than Monday afternoon as the latest Arctic blast begins to slowly retreat. Afternoon highs will remain sub-freezing region-wide.

Our rapid-fire weather pattern continues, with another clipper system zipping to the north of New England from west to east Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. This system will be weak, and with meager forcing, limited moisture and very fast nature, this system won't be able to put down much more than a dusting anywhere. This will mostly be a few scattered snow showers through the evening and nighttime.

As quickly as the weak clipper system exits Wednesday morning, the next, more organized system, will move into the region. This system will involve an area of low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes and northeast across interior New England. The center of the system will likely push across New England near the Canadian border. This makes the system an inside runner, with milder air getting pulled into eastern New England on a southerly flow.

Precipitation chances will increase from west to east beginning in the mid to late morning hours on Wednesday. This will steadily spread east through the afternoon hours. Precipitation will reach northern New England first, with the low pressure system moving north of New England. Rain and snow showers may not arrive in southern New England until the afternoon.

Below: FV3 showing potential weather in the late morning Wednesday (1st image) and mid-afternoon Wednesday (2nd image):

When precipitation arrives, it may be cold enough for snow or mixing across much of the region. This would be followed by a transition to rain from south and east to north and west during the afternoon. Precipitation may arrive late enough in the day, and allow for sufficient heating to take place across much of southern New England (outside of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills) to allow for plain rain at the start in the afternoon. Despite the low running well inland, thermal profiles will likely remain cold enough for the system to be all or mostly snow across interior New England.

The fast-moving nature of the system will be the biggest limiting factor for snowfall, with a widespread 1-3 inches across interior New England. A jackpot zone of 3-6 inches will be likely across the Green and White Mountains, as well as northernmost Maine. Overall, guidance seems to be trending a bit warmer. This may allow for the rain/snow line to push farther north and inland. The main issue with this is the fact that the storm is so fast-moving, a bulk of precipitation may be over for northern areas by the time it warms enough to switch to a mix or plain rainfall.

Overall, this will be an elevation-based snow event, with a deep warm layer across the lower terrain and gradually becoming colder moving up in elevation. Places like the northern Worcester Hills, Monadnocks and Litchfield Hills may stand to pick up a quick inch or two before warmer air becomes deeper and a switch to a rain/snow mix or plain rain occurs or precipitation ends out-wright.

This will be a quick-moving system with a majority of New England done with precipitation by midnight Thursday. With that said, the upper-level low will remain to the north of New England. This will aid in creating broad-cyclonic flow and an upslope snow shower event for the northern New England mountains on Thursday and potentially into Friday. This will help to tack on additional snow totals for the mountains and ski resorts.

Elsewhere, the drier air mass should prevail, but broad cyclonic flow will still promote breezy conditions with puffy cloud development in the afternoons. Friday will certainly be colder than Thursday as cold air advection continues behind the system. Highs on Thursday may be seen in the morning with temperatures falling through the afternoon. This will depend on the timing of the cold front.

The clipper system parade looks to continue into the weekend, with another potential quick-moving system arriving later Saturday into Sunday. Naturally at this time frame, guidance is wavering quite a bit on track and potential amounts. Trends overall have been nudging energy a bit farther north. At this point, southern New England stands the best chance to see some light snow/rain over the weekend, with odds gradually decreasing moving northward in New England. This weekend remains murky, and things should begin to become more clear over the next 24-48 hours.

Below: Model round-up (Euro, GFS, CMC and AIFS) for Sunday:

The potential for continued cold temperatures is of a much higher confidence than any potential snowy system. The third Arctic Blast within the span of a week will push into New England early next week. This one has the potential to be the coldest one of the bunch. Widespread highs in the teens and low 20s may be on tap for next Monday, with the potential for single digit highs across the north country.