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Quick-Hitting Coastal Storm Incoming to New England: Impacts, Timing

Updated: Nov 26, 2023

New England's next storm system will be coming Sunday night into Monday. This storm's setup will be similar to the pre-Thanksgiving system with a primary low tracking to the north of New England and a secondary, coastal low strengthening while it passes close to Cape Cod and then into Maine.



This storm will be a quick-hitter, with rain, snow and wind firing up Sunday night and winding down by Monday afternoon. For most outside of Maine and the White Mountains, the storm will begin to pull away by Monday morning. While this will be a lower impact storm for most, heavy rain and gusty winds are on the way. Here's a breakdown of what's coming:



ALERTS



RAIN


The temperature will generally be flat or rising throughout the night for most of New England. This storm will be a heavy rain (and only rain) event for all of southern New England. This storm will also be primarily rain for much of northern New England. The higher elevations will start as snow, but will likely change over to rain early Monday morning.


There will likely be a 3-6 hour window Monday morning that features widespread heavy rainfall across southern and central New England. A widespread inch of rain will fall across the region, with locally higher amounts likely where the heaviest rain band sets up. Where this sets up is highly dependent on the exact track.



The heaviest rain band will likely occur on the north side of the center of the low. Any shift in the track, and this rain band will shift as well. Just about all of southern and central New England will see moderate to heavy rain overnight regardless of where this band sets up. Flooding is not much of a concern given dry conditions and the fact that the storm will be moving so quickly.



The rain will begin to fall around 8-10pm in western New England and spread north and west through the night. Again, the storm is very progressive and will move out as quickly as it came in with rain shutting down as early as sunrise Monday in southern New England and by noon in northern New England, expect for northern Maine and maybe the White Mountains.




SNOW


Any snow accumulations will be highly dependent upon elevation in northern New England. 1-3 inches of snow remains possible for the Green, White and Maine mountains for areas below 1,500 feet. Areas around and below 1,000 feet may have trouble getting much of any snow accumulation. A winter weather advisory is in effect for northern New Hampshire and Maine, mainly for the possibility of snow covered roads at elevation. Locations above 1,500 feet will stand the best chance to see several inches of snow, with 6-8 inches possible above 2,000 feet.




WIND


There is still considerable uncertainty as to just how strong winds will be able to get at the surface. Gusts of up to 50mph will be possible across Cape Cod and the islands, where a wind advisory is in effect. Gusts of 55-60+mph will be possible across Maine's midcoast as well as downeast Maine, where a high wind watch is in effect. Areas outside of these alerts are very unlikely to see impactful winds.




COASTAL FLOODING


A coastal flood watch is in effect for Maine's midcoast and downeast. These areas will see the most direct onshore flow during high tide Monday morning, which is an astronomical high tide. Minor inundation of up to one foot is possible in these areas. The most vulnerable areas include Roque Bluffs, Schoodic Point, Seawall Road, Deer Isle Causeway, Deer Isle Oak Point, Cutler, Machias and Lubec.


Splashover will be possible in Rhode Island and the south shore of Massachusetts. These areas could see a surge of up to 2 feet, but this is expected several hours before high tide, so any flooding is expected to be minimal. Coastal flooding is not expected along the east coast of Massachusetts or New Hampshire.


Wind direction Monday morning:



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