After some early morning showers and thunderstorms, another round of showers is possible around late-morning into the early afternoon. Showers will generally become more isolated into the afternoon. During the daylight hours today, there will likely end being more dry hours versus wet hours.
NAM showing expected weather early this afternoon:
A more widespread round of showers will pass through the region beginning this evening in Vermont and pushing eastward through the first part of the night. This will come as a weak cold front pushes into the area. A light to moderate rain is likely for a few hours as the front passes with some embedded downpours.
There is also a chance for more thunderstorms to develop, mainly in Vermont and western Massachusetts (a majority of the thunderstorm activity will likely remain in New York). Any thunderstorms will likely be limited to the late-afternoon to early evening hours as peak daytime heating will be needed to produce the storms.
Extensive cloud cover will limit storm chances, especially farther east, but any breaks in the clouds this afternoon will help boost instability for storms to form. Any storm that forms will have the chance to produce downpours and possibly some small hail.
HRRR showing expected weather this evening (1st image) and around 10pm tonight (2nd image):
Total rainfall from this system will remain on the lighter side of the spectrum, with most areas seeing a quarter of an inch of rain or less. Areas that see a storm or downpour this evening could see totals up to a half an inch.
A persistent easterly flow off the chilly ocean will keep New England cool and raw today, with eastern areas struggling to see much of a rise at all in the temperatures this afternoon. Eastern areas will stay in the low to mid 50s while western areas may be able to push into the 60s amid more breaks in the clouds and a lack of a coastal influence.
For Wednesday, a sea breeze will loom large in the temperature department. An easterly flow will remain locked in place, keeping the skies stubbornly cloudy with that cool, raw feeling sticking around for eastern New England. Western New England (mainly the lower Connecticut River Valley westward) will see more mild temperatures. The amount of sunshine will help determine just how much temperatures can rise today and tomorrow.
We mentioned in yesterday's "weather this week" article that temperatures were uncertain heading into the end of the week. This uncertainty lies with the fact that another frontal system will slide through the region. The position of the system's fronts will help determine highs for Thursday. Areas that see the warm front cross will see a more mild day amid a southwest flow whereas areas east of that front will remain cooler with an onshore flow.
CMC sowing temperature departure from average for early Thursday afternoon. You can see where this model expects the warm front to be in the afternoon based on where temperatures flip from above to below average. The immediate coast will be kept cooler:
As for precipitation, the rest of the week is looking mainly cloudy and a bit unsettled, but most areas will see more dry hours than wet hours. Thursday will see that frontal system mentioned above produce a round of showers, mainly for northern New England. This will aid in keeping temperatures lower across much of New Hampshire and western Maine on Thursday.
Euro showing potential weather Thursday afternoon:
Friday and Saturday are once again looking cooler, but a warming trend will try to get going once again for the start of next week. As you can see by this article, there are plenty of pitfalls for temperatures this time of year, so nothing is locked in just yet. Conditions look to stay generally unsettled as another system slides through for the second half of the weekend, but nothing is coming close to looking like a washout at this point.
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