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Significant Snowstorm or Not for Tuesday? Models Still Vary Widely

New England's very active pattern continues after an unsettled weekend. On Monday, a rather unique storm setup for New England will set up the region for more snow. The snow will spread into the snow deprived southern New England. There remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast and potential snowfall amounts, however, it does look like this could be the biggest storm of the winter for Massachusetts.

The potential jackpot zone for snowfall amounts hasn't changed in southern New England, with the Worcester Hills and Berkshires looking at the most intense snowfall. A secondary jackpot zone may set up in central New Hampshire and heading north into the White Mountains.

Most models have backed off of a massive storm with very high amounts. It is now looking increasingly unlikely that snowfall amounts will hit the double digits. The Worcester hills, Berkshires and Green and White Mountains could see as much as 6-8 inches. Snowfall amounts in eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire are uncertain at this time, with models showing wide discrepancies.

While most models are showing only moderate snowfall totals, the USGFS model is holding onto very high amounts, with upwards of a foot and a half showing up in areas of western Massachusetts, northern New Hampshire and eastern Maine.

The USGFS model and the ECMWF (Euro) model are two major weather models used to look at weather in New England. Historically, the Euro model has proved to be more accurate and that model is showing much lower snow totals.

What is certain right now is that a storm will strike New England late Monday into Tuesday. This is the same system bringing blizzard conditions to Los Angeles county this weekend. This storm will be mainly snow, there will be some mixing right at the coast of Massachusetts and New Hampshire. There will be two centers of low pressure, one to New England's north and one to the south. One will be the primary low and the other the secondary low.

What's interesting here is that the National Weather Service of Gray, Maine and the National Weather Service of Boston are showing a disagreement about which low is the primary and which low is the secondary.

The Gray office states:

"The parent low will track offshore to the east and a secondary low will form to the north, which will track along the Canadian Border."

The Boston office states:

"with the parent low to our northwest and a secondary low forming along the frontal boundary off the mid Atlantic coast."

As you can see, Gray is calling the low to our north the secondary low while Boston calls that low the parent low. Either way, this set up will lock colder air into New England for this storm. Normally, when a low tracks to our north, it brings all rain to New England. In this case, the low to our south is enabling snow to fall across most of New England.

While a lot could still change with this storm and its forecast, what looks increasingly certain is that a wide area of New England will see 4-8 inches of snow, with the highest potential across central and Western Massachusetts, as well as into Vermont.

High resolution guidance will be coming into the picture soon and when that happens, storm details will come into focus. Stay with New England Storm Center as this storm develops.



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