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Spring Warmth Followed by Snow, Rain, Ice

Today will feature daily record challenging high temperatures. Boston is set to climb into the mid 60s by this afternoon. Their daily record for February 16 is 60, set way back in 1910. The rest of southern New England will be climbing toward or just past 60. Northern New England will shoot into the 50s, near 60 toward the Massachusetts border and the 40s further north.


A storm will begin to move through the region tonight. This storm will be rain for the entire region overnight, but northern New England will see a transition to a mix and snow during the day on Friday as a strong cold front pushes through the region. A winter weather advisory is in effect for most of Vermont, Coos county in New Hampshire and northern Maine.


The timing of the cold front has trended toward a slower arrival on Friday. Yesterday, morning highs were expected with falling temps during the day. Now, it looks like the temps won't begin their free fall until later in the day for much of New England.


SNOW


As the cold front drops down from the north, it will change the rain to more wintry precipitation from north to south. How far south the changeover goes is still uncertain. What we do know is that the changeover will not infiltrate southern New England. Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island will remain rain for the duration of the event. The National Weather Service of Gray, Maine states:


"The result will be rain changing to mixed precipitation from north to south as the day progresses, with sub-freezing surface air likely making it to the immediate coast and portions of southernmost NH by late in the day. Slippery travel is expected for most zones by Friday afternoon and especially the afternoon/evening commute as frozen or freezing precipitation is expected for most locations by 4pm Friday afternoon. Will likely have to extend the advisory southward a good ways south of the current one once the speed of the front edge of the surface sub-freezing air is a little more certain."

In areas of northern New England, where the storm will quickly change over to snow, up to 10 inches of snow is expected across northern Maine. Amounts drop off in northern New Hampshire, Vermont and as you head south in Maine, with a widespread 1-4 inches in these areas. Snowfall will likely make it into southern New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine, but amounts will be very limited here.



ICE


Freezing rain is possible in Vermont, with up to a quarter inch of ice possible across northern areas and a trace to a tenth of inch further south in the state. Conditions continue to look more favorable for freezing rain across northern Vermont (and the Adirondacks of New York). A significant ice storm is unlikely, however, the amount of ice varies from model to model, with some models trending toward more ice. The National Weather Service of Burlington, Vermont states:


"FRAM ice accumulation methods support higher amounts, but opted to lower amounts by about 0.1 inches since timing of warmer air aloft varies amongst differing models. NAM is most aggressive with higher precipitation forecast and more favorable profiles for icing, so it`s not out of the question that amounts could be higher."

The winter weather advisory currently states that up to three tenths of an inch of ice is possible across northern areas. The ice accumulation forecast will be something to watch as today goes on.


Lesser amounts of ice are expected across northern New Hampshire and Maine with a hundredth to a tenth of an inch expected. An isolated two tenth of an inch is not out of the question in these areas.



RAIN


Rain will be the story across southern New England. Many areas will be looking at heavy downpours, particularly during Friday morning. Some winter thunderstorms are not out of the question for southern New England. A half inch to an isolated inch of rain is possible in the heavier downpours.


In the lower elevations of Vermont, there is some concern about flooding. Potential river rises are possible with the rainfall combined with melting snow runoff. There are some ice jams in place and the incoming storm could promote ice movement. A widespread flooding event is not expected, but this will be something to watch.

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