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Storm, Snowfall Amounts Shift South: Timing, Impacts

All week long, it was looking like the strip of heaviest snowfall would land in southern Vermont, heading in a northeast direction through the White Mountains of New Hampshire and finally continuing through central Maine. Yesterday afternoon, the storm's track began to trend southward, which, in turn, began pulling the strip of heavier snow southward with it. Now, it is looking increasingly likely that the heaviest strip of snow will land south of the White Mountains and closer to the Maine coast.


CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST FORECAST YESTERDAY MORNING


FORECAST CHANGES


As you can see from the snowfall forecasts above that the biggest changes to the forecast is is in southeastern New Hampshire and along the Maine coastline, as well as southern Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island.


In southeastern New Hampshire, the storm is now expected to produce steady to at times heavy snow, particularly Monday afternoon into the evening. The storm is still expected to produce rain and a mix of rain and snow overnight in this area, which is why snowfall amounts will be lower there than the rest of southern New Hampshire.


The increase in snowfall amounts in Rockingham county is reflected in the current alerts for this storm. Yesterday, Rockingham county was not included in winter storm watches, this morning, the county jumped straight into a winter storm warning.


The other area that will see more snow is New England south of Boston and Worcester. Yesterday, this area was not expected to see any accumulation, now up to an inch or two will be possible. That's clearly not much, but it is still more than expected yesterday.


The storm has also trended weaker, which has led to slightly lower amounts of snow falling. This is reflected in the fact that the 8-12" zone in yesterday's map has been removed from Maine.


IMPACTS


Snowfall will now be the primary impact from the storm across the region. Up to 10 inches is possible in the swath across central New England. This will be the wet, sticky type of snow that is hard to shovel.


This snow will stick to the trees, so power outages are a concern. Wind gusts up to 40mph will exacerbate the problem. Another issue is that not all the snow has come off the trees from the last storm, so in those areas, the trees will already be starting with snow on them.


POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL



Rain across southern New England and southern New Hampshire will help wash away some of the snow on the trees, so the greatest power outage risk is from southern Vermont, through Keene, NH and heading northeast toward Manchester and through central Maine.


There is also a risk for some minor coastal flooding as high tides are near their astronomical peak. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for all of the Massachusetts coast. Roads along the coast may be closed around midday Monday.


TIMING


Sunday evening: Snow breaks out in western Massachusetts and Vermont; rain falling in eastern Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island


Sunday night: Snow fills in through New Hampshire, rain/snow line likely pushes just beyond the MA-NH border with snow falling steadily north and rain falling steadily south.


Monday morning: Rain/snow line begins to gradually retreat back south of the MA-NH border; steady snow falling for much of Maine.


Monday afternoon: Snow falling across the entire region with the rain/snow line pushing all the way to Cape Cod.


Monday evening: Snow showers continue for eastern New England, western New England dries out


Monday night: Storm pulls away from New England.





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