top of page

Stormy Weather will Continue for New England. Will it Rain or Snow?

After two storms in 36 hours for New England, the weather isn't slowing down. Another storm is already on the way for Friday night to Saturday. Flood watches that were issued for our last storm are remaining in effect through Saturday evening for much of southern New England. After this one, another storm may be in the pipeline for New England early next week.


FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY


New England's next storm will feature a setup very similar to our previous storm. A strong low pressure system will pass to the west of New England. This will once again allow for a strong southerly flow, boosting temperatures and allowing for a soaking rain. The storm will likely see snow at the start across northern New England before a changeover to rain occurs from south to north.



This storm will likely move along even quicker than the last one. Impacts from the storm will be very similar to the Tuesday night storm with heavy rain, snow, gusty winds and coastal flooding. With the quicker movement of the storm, these impacts will likely be a toned-down version of what occurred Tuesday night.



New England will be looking at a widespread 1-2 inches of rain. There likely won't be as much moisture for this storm to work with and snowmelt across southern and central New England will not be a factor. Still, soaking rains combined with the fact that rivers are now running high (17 river gauges remain in flood stage as of Thursday morning) will likely lead to more problems.



To answer the question in the title, it will rain with this system for most once again, but a thump of snow at the beginning is possible. Snow will transition to rain from south to north with the White Mountains once again looking to be the jackpot zone, where 5-8 inches will be possible. Total snowfall should come in short of the foot plus seen Tuesday night.



Winds will once again be gusty, with gusts of 50-60mph possible along the coast. Another downslope wind event will be possible across the western slopes of the Green and White mountains. These areas could see gusts to 60mph as well. Signals aren't as strong for a downslope wind event as Tuesday night, so 70-80mph gusts that were seen in Vermont Tuesday night aren't nearly as likely.



With a strong onshore flow, coastal flooding is a big concern (perhaps the biggest concern) for this storm, especially after coastal flooding over performed on Wednesday morning. Tides will be reaching astronomical highs with a surge of 3-3.5 feet possible. The max surge is looking to come through a few hours before the noon high tide on Saturday. Widespread moderate flooding will be possible with pockets of major flooding. A 12.8 foot high tide is forecast at Hampton. This is borderline major flooding.




TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY


After this storm, temperatures will drop off back toward more January-like levels. This comes as a shift in the jet stream will allow colder air to plunge into the eastern United States by Sunday night. This pattern change will also change the track of incoming storm systems.



The Tuesday to Wednesday time frame could see yet another storm. With a change in the overall setup, this storm will very likely track offshore of New England, placing New England back on the "cold side" of the storm. This storm would be more like the Sunday storm. The storm may track so far offshore that a bulk of the precipitation stays away from New England.


There remains a large spread in the models on where exactly the storm will track. If the storm takes a favorable track, several inches of snow will be possible across northern New England and interior southern New England. Should the storm trend further offshore, it would lead to just some scattered, light snow showers for southern New England and not much of anything in northern New England. The bulk of this storm would likely be Tuesday night.


Euro vs CMC on the track. Euro has the storm well offshore, allowing only lighter snow showers while CMC has the track closer, allowing for a more widespread snowy event:


The incoming colder air will have some staying power, as high temperatures in the teens and 20s to the north and 30s to the south will likely hang around pretty much all of next week.



FRIDAY-SATURDAY (JANUARY 19-20)


Another system could be in the works for the following weekend. Again, with the pattern change, this would favor more of a wintry system. Very early indications show a storm system passing offshore or directly over New England. This would lead to some more snow or a "messy mix" type of storm.


This is looking over a week ahead, so everything about this system can change, but as long as we're in this hyper-active pattern, the timing of a system to come through (or at least threaten) early next weekend fits.


28 views

Commentaires


bottom of page