Over the weekend, New England Storm Center mentioned the possibility of severe thunderstorms for southern New England on Wednesday. If all the ingredients came together, a severe thunderstorm outbreak COULD have been possible. It's now looking highly unlikely that all the ingredients will be coming together, but conditions will still be favorable for standard thunderstorms, some of which could reach the sub-severe "strong" level.
New England's next system moves into the region on Wednesday, which will set the stage for another unsettled day. Wednesday morning will be mainly dry and some breaks in the clouds are likely. In the afternoon, a shortwave will cycle through New England. Shortwaves are disturbances that create upward motion ahead of them, which supports thunderstorm activity.
This shortwave is moving a bit too slowly to take advantage of other ingredients that will be in place (i.e. not everything is together at the same time for scattered severe weather). Despite this, enough will be in place to support potentially strong thunderstorms and an isolated rogue severe thunderstorm is not out of the question.
The main threat from these thunderstorms will be localized strong winds. Small hail will also be a possibility given the cold air aloft. Not everyone will see thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into the evening in the yellow area on the map below. Some areas will just see plain rain showers.
While there is a slight risk of thunder for the entire region, the best chance for thunderstorms will be in southern New England, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. Showers and storms will break out in western areas in the afternoon and push eastward.
New England remains stuck in a very unsettled pattern. This is thanks to another Omega Block style pattern very similar to what was in place last week. A slow moving area of low pressure to our west will continue to cycle in rounds of showers and thunderstorms thanks to a trough in the jet stream (due to the blocking pattern). Despite this, temperatures look to be seasonable for this week, with a lot of 70s. Cooler weather will likely return for the weekend and into early next week.
The low will push to New England's east by the weekend, but will still be around to send rounds of showers through the region. Just like last week, no washouts are expected, just scattered rounds of lighter showers and storms. This area of low pressure shows signs of departing early next week, but the pattern doesn't show clear signs of budging. The NOAA's 8-14 day temperature outlook shows clear indications of an Omega Block continuing.
Comments