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System Pulls Away Today; Watching a Potential Storm for Next Week

This long-duration rain event that we've been in is now starting to wind down. Precipitation will continue to end slowly from west to east throughout the day today. Much of Maine and Cape Cod will likely stay in the precipitation into this evening.


Expected weather around mid-afternoon today:


As the coastal low lifts northeast toward Nova Scotia, it will intensify. This will accelerate cooling on the backside of the system and allow rain to switch to snow across eastern Maine. This transition will likely occur through the mid to late afternoon hours. Snow showers will continue to move west to east through the night, ending by Saturday morning in most areas. Rain, or a rain/snow mix will likely continue at lower elevations and near the coast this evening.


Expected weather late this evening:



This will be coming as the storm is winding down. With mild conditions preceding the storm, it will be difficult to accumulate on surfaces that are not already cold. All of this will limit snowfall, but a few inches will still be possible across the higher terrain and easternmost Maine away from the coast. This comes as the system becomes potent, dropping into the sub-980mb range.



Easter weekend will see much quieter and drier weather, although gusty winds will be likely on Saturday. Easter Sunday itself will see a weak system zip to the south of New England. This may touch off a couple brief, very light and isolated showers or flurries in the morning. After this weekend, attention turns to another potentially long-duration system for the middle of next week.


While there are many variables that need to be sorted out at this time range, the system looks to involve a primary low over the Ohio valley spawning a secondary, surface low as the system moves eastward. The secondary low will likely track in the vicinity of southern New England and deepen in the Gulf of Maine.




As usual, the timing of when and how quickly the secondary low forms and develops, the track of this low and just how strong it is able to get will be the key to who gets mainly rain, who gets mainly snow, how strong winds get, how heavy precipitation will be as well as overall timing, so almost everything.


As far as timing goes, early indications show precipitation breaking out in western areas Tuesday afternoon or evening. The bulk of the precipitation is looking to come through during the day Wednesday or into Wednesday evening as the low moves through New England. Precipitation may last into Thursday. This is an early look at timing, and there is still plenty of wobble room.


500mb steering current showing the trough digging into the northeast. This runs from Tuesday morning through Thursday afternoon:


Of course, the million dollar question will be precipitation type. Precipitation type will be a challenge to sort out with this one. Being early April, it seems fair to lean toward a rain event at lower elevations and farther south with more mixing and snow farther north and at higher elevations. There will likely be cold air over northern New England, supportive of snow. The question will be how far south can that cold air can get wrapped around.


Current Weather Prediction Probability of impactful winter weather from April 3-4:


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