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Temperature to Drop for New England as Warm High Pressure Exits

Writer's picture: Tim DennisTim Dennis

The strong, expansive and unseasonably warm area of high pressure that has been planted over the northeast for nearly a week now will begin to move eastward and offshore today. This will help turn the flow more southerly compared to yesterday and allow another day of very warm temperatures region-wide. As this high continues to push offshore, a cold front will approach and cross New England tonight into Thursday morning. This will end our bout with mild temperatures...for now.



A northerly flow behind this cold front will allow for a much cooler air mass to take hold beginning on Thursday, however, the air mass was so warm preceding this front that temperatures are more keen to drop to seasonal averages. Generally zonal flow over southern Canada will allow high pressure and low pressure to continue to trade off for the next several days. After Thursday's cold front, high pressure builds back in for Friday before another cold front passes New England on Saturday.




The area of low pressure associated with this cold front will likely strengthen as it passes New England to the northeast. This will result in broad cyclonic flow over New England on Saturday and Sunday. Combine this with building high pressure to the west and it will be chilly and breezy.


Both of the incoming fronts are moisture-starved and will have trouble producing much by way of showers. Both will produce more numerous showers across the northern tier of New England with very limited, if any, showers activity across southern and central areas. There is generally a better chance for a few showers with the Friday night to Saturday front, but it will be difficult for any widespread activity to develop. Wetting rains remain out of the forecast with these fronts.


Below: Weather Prediction Center 7-day rainfall forecast:


The building high pressure to the west for this weekend into early next week will be a cool, Canadian high pressure system that drops southward. This will keep the cool air mass over New England heading into early next week. Sunday and Monday will be the coolest days of this upcoming stretch, and Monday morning is looking cold with widespread freezing temperatures possible.



With high pressure continuing to dominate with only moisture-starved fronts moving through the region, there continues to be no real signs of any wetting rain in the forecast for New England. This has been a very dry fall for New England. The first three weeks of October have picked up where September left off for below average rainfall. This is especially true for southern New England, who has generally seen less rain than areas farther north.



Looking toward the extended, dry conditions are generally looking to continue, but the cooler weather may not. At the beginning of the article, we said that the bout of mild temperatures were over...for now. After the beginning of next week's chill, signals are pointing toward a rebound in temperatures. A trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern is looking to develop around the middle of next week.


Below: Potential flow pattern setting up around the middle of next week:


This would allow for temperatures to climb right back to above average levels. This could usher in a brief return to the 70s for the time around Halloween for the warm spots of New England and 60s elsewhere. This is based on large-scale factors and exactly how mild it may (or may not) get will depend on how smaller-scale factors set up (like potential frontal boundaries or onshore vs offshore flow). As of now, the Climate Prediction Center has New England with a 70-90% chance of above average temperatures for October 30-November 5.



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About Me

My name is Timothy Dennis. I'm a weather enthusiast who was born and raised here in New England. All my life I have been fascinated by the weather. Here I write about New England's current weather while documenting past weather events. 

 

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