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Thursday Morning Trends Drier; Evening Storms Possible in Western New England

The extent of steady rain and downpours this morning was dependent on the northward advancement of a warm front. This front will struggle to push much farther north than the Massachusetts Turnpike for much of the day today. This has led to a southward trend in the initial shield of rain.

The bulk of the steady rain is looking to pass just south of New England this morning. With that said, it won't be dry this morning for southern New England as scattered showers will still be present. With a highly moist atmosphere, any shower could become heavier. The best chance for periods of steadier rain will be along the south coast.

Radar as of 8am showing the bulk of the rainfall south of New England. This shield of rain will likely stay just south of the region with scattered showers across southern New England:

A downward trend in the impact of the morning shield of rain may mean an upward trend in the impact of the evening wave of thunderstorms as the morning rain won't zap the energy out of the atmosphere. This line of storms will be associated with the system's cold front. A triple point low will likely form over New England and track near the border of southern and northern New England.

This triple point will help aid in the formation of storms, and potentially strong to severe storms across western Massachusetts and Connecticut, as these areas will be in the system's warm sector. Storms will likely fire up in the evening across western areas before tracking eastward. These storms will weaken as they push eastward as daytime heating is lost heading further into the night.

HRRR showing expected weather this evening:

The overall severe threat is on the lower end as instability will be lacking. Temperature profiles will not be favorable for severe weather and a mostly cloudy sky will keep instability in check. With that said, if some breaks in the clouds can develop in western New England this afternoon, some stronger storms will be able to develop. These storms would be isolated, similar to what occurred on Wednesday in Maine, with most storms staying sub-severe.

After Thursday, the cutoff low to the northwest of New England will remain largely in place through early next week. This will behave like a typical cutoff low, with the chance for showers somewhere in New England every day, but low washout potential with more dry times than wet times. Friday will see scattered showers around in the afternoon with breaks in the cloud cover.

Saturday has been trending drier for some in New England. Drier air will move into New England behind the cold front that will clear New England on Friday. This will make it more difficult for showers to develop in southern New England, though a few isolated ones will likely still manage to pop up. Northern New England will be closer to the cutoff low, which will increase forcing and allow for more numerous showers. The day will not be washed out in northern New England, there will just be generally more showers around in the afternoon.

CMC showing potential weather Saturday afternoon:

Sunday will see a disturbance embedded within the upper level low rotate through southern New England. This, along with increasing moisture, will likely allow generally more showers to break out Sunday afternoon than on Saturday. The day is still unlikely to be totally washed out, just more showers around.

As for temperatures in this timeframe, they will be right around seasonable levels, with 70s likely dominating. Areas that see more sun will have the chance to jump into the low 80s. Northern New England will generally be on the cooler side (relative to average) with more clouds and showers around than southern New England.

After a rather humid day on Thursday, dew points will be dropping off and staying on the lower end through at least early next week. Full summer heat and humidity will be largely vacant for the next week or so, but nice, late spring-early summer weather will be around between the clouds and showers, at least for southern New England.



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