When one exits, another arrives. That is the case with storms for New England. After a brief break from the unsettled weather over the weekend, a new area of low pressure is working across the country, poised to strike New England.
An area of low pressure will very slowly crawl across the Great Lakes early next week. This track will send an associated cold front across New England on Monday. A secondary area of low pressure may develop along the front, which would help increase rain totals. The timing of this front has slowed significantly versus model runs from the previous couple days. The entirety of New England will remain dry for much of Monday, although the day will be overcast for most of the day. Eastern Maine will remain partly cloudy for much of the day.
Showers will begin to break out from west to east Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning as the front approaches. A steadier rain will likely break out quickly after showers begin. This steady rain will be very widespread, nearly all of New England will likely see a quarter to a half inch of rainfall Monday evening through Tuesday midday.
The Green and White Mountains will likely be the jackpot for rain, with over inch possible in these areas. Rainfall amounts have been trending up in these areas over the past 24 hours, so this number could continue to rise. This will be very beneficial rain for Vermont, which is currently the driest place in New England.
Moisture from the cold front does appear to begin fizzling out a bit as it pushes into eastern Maine, which will likely see the least amount of rain from this system.
A big question that remains with this system is how quickly (or slowly) the system will clear out. This front is slow to arrive thanks to blocking, and once this system arrives, that same blocking will make this rain slower to exit. Rain will end from west to east on Tuesday, but clouds and showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will linger region wide for much of the day.
Weather map for Tuesday. You can see a secondary low develop in New England with the primary low still over Michigan. This secondary low's associated warm front will give much of New England a warm day despite thick clouds developing :
Beyond Tuesday, this week will be rather unsettled as the main area of low pressure slowly pushes east past the Great Lakes and into the northeast. There will likely be afternoon thunderstorms and showers for much of the region Wednesday, with the possibility of severe thunderstorms across southern New England. This threat will need to be watched as the week progresses.
Unsettled weather will likely persist through Friday, with afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible through this week. Thursday will likely be the driest day for many. Despite the unsettled weather, temperatures are looking to be seasonable with most topping out in the 70s throughout the week with some 80s possible south.
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