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Weekend Storm to Bring Rain, Mountain Snow to New England

Friday and Saturday will be quiet and dry days, but clouds will be thickening ahead of our next system. This system will involve a primary low tracking to the north of New England with a secondary low forming near southern New England. As usual, the track of the secondary low along with how fast it can strengthen will determine impacts to New England.

The track of the secondary low is likely to move the system directly over southern New England. This will allow mild air to advect into much of New England, leading to a mainly rain event for southern New England and the lower elevations of northern New England.

Snow, or a rain/snow mix, will be seen across the foothills and mountains. Warm air from a southeast flow will likely warm temperatures through Saturday night with the rain/snow line pushing northward as the night goes on.

Precipitation from the system will likely break out well after dark on Saturday and spread from west to east during the night. There remain some questions as to how far south the snow begins, but the general idea is that snow will transition to rain from south to north. All areas south of the mountains will see little to no snow.

Euro showing potential weather overnight Saturday night:

The storm is looking increasingly progressive, with much of New England seeing an end to the bulk of the precipitation by Sunday early afternoon. Lighter and more scattered rain/snow showers will likely continue through the day Sunday. Wrap-around snow showers will linger across the higher terrain of northern New England. Maine will naturally stay in the system later as it pushes eastward.

Euro showing potential weather Sunday morning (1st image) and early Sunday afternoon (2nd image):

Terrain-enhanced snow showers will likely continue through Sunday night and into Monday morning in the mountains as the cold pool hangs around. The cold pool should push away by Monday afternoon, leading to an end to the mountain snow showers. This could be a decent upslope snow event, with an additional few inches of snow possible across the high peaks.

Euro showing potential weather Monday morning:

There will likely be another widespread soaking for southern and central New England. While rainfall will not be as high as totals were earlier this week, a half inch to inch of rain is expected. Snowfall will be highly elevation-dependent with some of the higher peaks in the White and Maine Mountains seeing up to a foot by Monday afternoon. Snowfall amounts will come down as elevation drops. Valley towns (mainly below 1,500 feet) likely won't see nearly as much as the mountains get.

The Green Mountains won't see quite as much as the mountains farther east, but several inches will still be likely by Monday afternoon. Orographic snow showers Sunday night and Monday will likely help enhance their totals. The principal will be the same with areas generally above 1,000-1,500 feet seeing more than lower elevation areas. Accumulating snow will be tough everywhere due to marginal temps and a wet ground.

Tides will be astronomically very high this weekend into next week. Combine this with a strong southeast flow from the storm, and there is a concern for a coastal flooding event. Widespread minor flooding is possible across the New England coast, with pockets of moderate flooding possible from Boston Harbor through Maine's Midcoast as well as into Rhode Island's Narragansett Bay. A surge of 1.5-2.5 feet is possible.

As usual, the exact timing of the strongest winds in relation to high tide will ultimately decide the extent of coastal flooding. The Sunday late-morning high tide is the biggest concern. As of now, Portland is forecast to reach 13.7 feet, which is 0.3 feet from major flood stage. If this 13.7 feet occurs, it would be the third top ten highest tide on record for Portland set this winter.

This is the last storm in this stretch before a break for much of next week. After a cool start to the week, a warming trend will begin and continue through most of the week until temperatures are once again above average.



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