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Active Pattern Continues for New England; Colder Weather Ahead

Writer's picture: Tim DennisTim Dennis

As this long duration storm for New England continues this weekend, the pattern will stay rather active heading into the week of Thanksgiving, with two primary systems to watch. Along with these systems, there are also indications of a colder, winter-like air mass settling over New England for the end of November and start of December. As of now, the arrival of colder air is much higher confidence than the details on potential storms next week.


New England is on the last leg of this storm complex that began on Thursday. The system will continue to meander eastward toward the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend. Precipitation will gradually wind down (outside of upslope mountain showers) from west to east through this afternoon. Precipitation will continue to fall across eastern Maine for much of the day as the system hangs around Nova Scotia.


Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:


The system itself will continue to strengthen as it continues to meander around Nova Scotia. This will support a rapid increase in winds on the backside of the system this afternoon. Gusts of 30-40mph will be possible region-wide. This will be a chilly northwest wind, leading to a cold and raw feeling for Saturday, though winds should generally stay below the threshold for damage.


Wrap-around showers tonight across the northern third of New England will likely gradually change to snow showers. These snow showers will likely continue into Sunday morning. Minor accumulations of 1-3 inches remain possible near the Canadian border with several inches across the mountain tops through Sunday.


Below: Probability of at least 2 inches of snow through Sunday evening:


New England's next system in this more active streak will come through from Monday night through Tuesday. This system will be much more progressive than our previous one and looks to move in and out within a day. A northern stream system is looking to pass through northern New England, bringing with it a period of precipitation.


The northerly track of the system and preceding temperatures will support mostly rain for New England with higher elevation mixing and snow showers. It should be noted that if the system trends toward a slightly more southerly track, frozen precipitation would be pulled slightly farther south as well. Northern Maine could also get in on the frozen precipitation as well. A general quarter to half inch is rain is currently looking likely.



The departure of this system will help usher in a chillier air mass leading into Thanksgiving as the system's cold front gets dragged across the region. Wednesday will be chilly and blustery with Thanksgiving day itself likely staying chilly, though winds may decrease. This chillier weather preceding Thanksgiving isn't looking to be really winter-like, however, with the 925 mb (about 2,500 feet above sea level) air mass dropping to around freezing. This will support highs above freezing at the surface for many.


Below: Euro showing the altitude above sea level where temperatures drop below freezing. The first image shows Tuesday midday and the second shows Wednesday midday:


This colder air mass leads us into our second storm system for the week. To start off, trends have continued to place the bulk of the storm in the Thanksgiving night to Friday time frame, leading to a mainly dry Thanksgiving day. Confidence in how this system will evolve continues to be very low. Guidance continues to vary significantly from run to run and model to model.


The basic setup will be a Pacific system traveling across the country next week. Toward the end of next week, it will support the development of a low pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and strengthen as it moves north and east. This points toward nor'easter development. This system will, in all likelihood, manage to form. The million dollar question will be where does it track?



There are currently two basic outcomes that guidance seems to be keen on. Guidance continues to waffle back and forth between them. The first outcome would be a track near or inside the benchmark as the system interacts with northern stream energy. This would support a wintry storm inland with mixing and rainfall along the coastal plain. Exactly where a rain/snow line would set up would come down to several other factors (exact track relative to the benchmark and timing). This solution is currently favored by the Euro and GFS, albeit with differences within the exact track relative to the benchmark.


Below: Euro (00z) and GFS (06z) model runs Saturday morning:


The other basic solution favors little to no interaction with the northern stream. This would favor a much more southerly track with the system. Depending on how far south, it would lead to a colder day for all of New England, but with much less precipitation. Northern New England likely wouldn't get much of anything with this solution and southern New England would likely see lighter precipitation or none at all, again depending on the final track. This would also be a much more progressive storm, with it exiting the area much quicker. This solution is currently favored by the CMC and the Euro's AI model counterpart (AIFS).


Below: CMC (00z) and EC-AIFS (00z) model runs Saturday morning:


These models have shown no run to run consistency as of yet, which keeps the forecast confidence very low. Until more consistency starts being shown among guidance, any details on this storm will remain up in the air, including the all important question of how much? Any model or graphic trying to show potential snowfall should absolutely not be trusted at all right now.


As we said at the beginning, the confidence in colder temperatures late next week following this system is higher. The departure of this system should open the door for cold, winter-like temperatures to spill into the northern tier of the United States.


Below: Euro showing potential 850 mb (about 5,000 feet above sea level) temperatures next Saturday. You can see the deep colder air wrapping around the departing system (which can be seen just north of Maine on the map):


A general ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern may develop by the start of December as general troughing continues over the northeast to close out November. This also raises confidence in some cold temperatures coming up to kick off meteorological winter. As of now, the Climate Prediction Center has southern and central New England with a 70-80% chance of below average temperatures during this time, as seen below.



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About Me

My name is Timothy Dennis. I'm a weather enthusiast who was born and raised here in New England. All my life I have been fascinated by the weather. Here I write about New England's current weather while documenting past weather events. 

 

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