Active Pattern Set to Continue for New England

New England's potent Alberta Clipper is swiftly moving away. As of writing this morning, the storm's center is already around Nova Scotia. A secondary cold front will drop through New England over the course of the morning and early afternoon, which may help promote some additional mountain snow showers. Other than that, high pressure is quickly racing eastward, which will help keep the rest of New England dry today.

Pressure rises of up to 8mb this morning show the speed at which all of this is moving. Gusty winds will generally settle down later in the day. With that said, there could be a secondary increase with winds this afternoon as cold air advection behind both cold fronts increases. This will generally help to mix gusty winds to the surface. Gusts of 35-45mph will continue to be possible before quickly settling down around sunset.

Below: Euro showing the overall setup this afternoon. Our system will be moving well east of Nova Scotia with high pressure moving in from the southwest. This pressure gradient (969mb low and 1,023mb) high is not quite as tight as Tuesday's 949mb and 1,028mb around the same time:

Wind advisories and high wind warnings were cancelled a few hours early this morning region-wide as a worst-case scenario on winds was certainly avoided. Gusts of 40-50+mph were seen, but power outages have been minimal across the region as of writing. This is in stark contrast to the over 100,000 that lost power in Pennsylvania. It appears the mitigating factors we brought up in yesterday's forecast played a role.

With high pressure building in later today and tonight, conditions will become primed for radiational cooling. Slackening winds and clear skies should allow for the coldest night of season so far in this young cold weather season. Lows will likely drop into the 20s region-wide with teens across the north. We should note that today marks the first day of solar winter, which consists of the 45 days before and after the winter solstice, when the nights are longest and the sun angle is weakest.

Below: CMC showing potential low temperatures Friday morning:

New England's active pattern continues with the next piece of shortwave energy will push north of New England late Friday into Saturday. This system will move much farther north than the previous one, and likely won't be as strong. As such, the system will generally be milder with scattered showers amounting to a widespread tenth to quarter of an inch of rain. With the storm moving north of New England, we'll be within the warm sector, allowing for a rather mild Saturday. Things will cool off quickly once the system's cold front crosses the region later Saturday.

The active pattern rolls on with another system set to move through Sunday into Monday. This low pressure system will be in response to a deepening trough across the Great Lakes region. As the trough pushes eastward, the area of low pressure looks to cross directly through New England with a period of mainly rain for much of New England. Mixing and snow will be likely across the higher elevations of northern New England (with some potential for the Berkshires and maybe Worcester Hills as well). Overall, there's a decent amount of spread in just how this system will play out.

Below: Current weather map for Sunday (November 9):

A ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern will set up next week, with chilly temperatures and continued unsettled weather on tap. High temperatures look to bottom out on Tuesday, when most of New England will likely struggle to break out of the 30s in the afternoon. While generally unsettled weather and showers will be possible within the trough, no organized systems currently look to move through after Sunday to Monday. Scattered showers and flurries will be possible, most likely in the mountains, from Tuesday to Thursday.

Below: 500mb height anomaly next Tuesday afternoon, showing the aforementioned ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern setting up:

This continued active pattern comes as New England remains in a favorable location for storm development and strengthening. The pattern has been rather amplified, with general troughing over New England. New England has been sitting in the base of this trough, which is a prime area for storm strengthening. The pattern has also been very progressive, with low and high pressure systems quickly moving through the area in rapid succession. With rapidly strengthening storms quickly followed by high pressure, the pressure gradient remains tight, allowing for persistently high winds.

The northern stream is continuing its annual migration southward for the winter, when it typically lays across the northern tier of the United States. In the warmer months, this stream migrates north, well into Canada. Systems will be moving through New England at a brisk pace through this weekend. With the base of a trough over New England and a brisk upper-level flow, the northeast becomes a hotbed for storm development. These storms have been strengthening just to New England's east, keeping impacts here more minimal and mainly limited to high winds.

Below: Jet stream map for the middle of this week, showing the northern stream laying across the eastern United States and right through New England: