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Breaking Down Each Day's Storm Risk For New England This Week

Updated: Jun 27, 2023

It's going to be an unsettled, stormy week across New England as yet another cut off low slowly works eastward toward the region. Thunderstorms and torrential rain will be a threat just about all week long. The potential for flooding grows every day, especially for Vermont and northern New Hampshire.


With such a moisture rich atmosphere, it won't take much of an ignition to spark showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely begin popping around midday and continue through the evening. Like Sunday, the storms will be scattered in nature, so there are places that will not see much of anything while other places get nailed. Today, there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Southern New England is on the northern edge of today's potential severe weather outbreak with the mid-Atlantic expected to get hit the hardest. Not all the ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak in New England, so any potential severe storms will be isolated. Nearly all of New England (northern Maine being the exception) will have the chance to see thunderstorms and downpours erupt throughout the afternoon. The biggest threat in both non-severe and severe storms will be torrential rain and flash flooding. The severe storms could contain strong, damaging wind gusts as well.


Tuesday will be very similar to Monday. The main differences are that shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be more widespread and temperatures will be higher. Tuesday will also likely see some thunderstorm activity in the morning as well as the afternoon.

Tuesday will also see a threat for strong to severe storms, though the coverage area on severe storms will likely be smaller, limited to southern areas of the region. With a cold pool moving into the region aloft, hail will be more of a threat Tuesday than Monday in the stronger storms. Torrential rainfall, again, will be the biggest threat. The highest chance for flooding rainfall will likely be into New Hampshire and Vermont.


More thunderstorms and downpours will be on tap for Wednesday. At this time, a strong to severe threat is not in the picture as the overall setup is a bit more muted compared to Monday and Tuesday. Small hail could still occur as the cold pool continues to work into the region.

Torrential rainfall once again is the primary threat. Parts of New England are in the "marginal" category for excessive rainfall from Monday through at least Thursday. This threat is broad on Monday and Tuesday, covering much of New England but shrinks to Vermont, New Hampshire, eastern Maine and western Massachusetts for Wednesday and Thursday.


Confidence in the forecast does drop after Wednesday, but the end of the week does continue to look unsettled. Thunderstorms remain in the picture for Thursday, but coverage looks smaller, with more non-thunderous showers around. Friday looks similar to Thursday, but there may be even less showers and storms around. Western New England may begin to dry out Friday afternoon.


There are signals of the trough breaking down by this weekend. This could lead to drier weather just in time for at least part of the weekend. Despite the breakdown, New England could remain under cyclonic flow, keeping the showers around. Yet another low could form and move toward New England by the end of the weekend, so precipitation chances will remain in the forecast throughout the weekend at this time.

Any weekend rain is looking to stay isolated to scattered, so, like this entire week (and the whole month), a washout is unlikely at this time. Stay tuned this week as details on this weekend's weather becomes more refined...

Weather map for Saturday morning showing a ridge of high pressure nearby. You can also see our most recent low pressure sliding northeast, out of New England in the very corner. How long this potential dry window lasts is very much in question. At this time, it doesn't look like it will last too long...



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