Broad Cyclonic Flow Hangs Over New England This Week

New England will become more centered within a deep trough on Tuesday. This will bring a shot of Arctic air through the east. This blast of air is more reminiscent of a mid-winter Arctic blast than an early-season cold front. Tuesday will see temperatures bottom out, with highs struggling to break out of the 30s region-wide. The northern tier of New England will likely get locked into the 20s to low 30s for highs. This will come as temperatures won't rise much from morning lows due to a cold pool of air aloft and partial to little sunshine.

Broad cyclonic flow around the upper-level low north of New England will continue through the day today. An elongated surface trough (represented by the dotted line on the map above) will extend through New England, providing some forcing for snow showers and flurries across New England today. Snow showers will be most persistent across the Green Mountains and Berkshires.

Elsewhere, much more isolated activity is expected, and not everyone will see a flake fall today, but it will be possible anywhere. There is a low chance for some snow squalls, but given there's strong mode of forcing for the development of squalls (no fronts will be moving through, just an unstable atmosphere and general troughing will be present), any squall activity will be scattered and disorganized at best.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:

As stated above, snow showers will be most persistent in the mountains of northern New England on Tuesday (as well as Wednesday and Thursday). Additional snowfall through today across Vermont and northern New Hampshire will likely be in the 1-3 inch range, with mountains and higher elevations seeing an additional 3-6 inches. This comes after a general 4-8 inches of snow ended falling across northern Vermont yesterday evening as our latest storm pulled away and colder air came crashing into western New England.

Below: Probability of seeing at least 1 inch of snow today:

Wednesday will likely be the cloudiest day of the week as the next wave of energy rotates through the trough. An area of low pressure will push north of New England while another will likely form off the Maine coastline. Overall, upslope snow shower activity will likely continue in the mountains and northern Maine with minimal to no activity across the rest of New England as dry air tries to remain in place. This drier air will likely win out for most.

Some lake-effect energy may try to push all the way to western Massachusetts and northern Connecticut, especially on Thursday as a west-northwest flow picks back up behind the midweek system. Outside of northernmost New England and the Berkshires, dry air will likely win out a majority of the time on Wednesday and Thursday, despite the clouds. An additional 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, who will be closest to the area of low pressure.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather early Wednesday evening:

On top of the cold temperatures and unsettled weather, it will be persistently gusty as well. A well-mixed atmosphere, broad cyclonic flow and strong cold air advection will result in persistently blustery conditions through much of the week. Tuesday should be the windiest day of the week, however, with only breezy conditions thereafter. After a slow start to the wind on Tuesday, gusts will likely pick up later in the afternoon and peak toward the evening. This breeze will add wind chill into the picture, with feels-like temperatures in the teens north to 20s south.

Heading into this weekend, New England's next more organized and widespread system will likely approach. After a brief ridge of surface high pressure Friday and Saturday, an area of low pressure will dig into the Great Lakes and move toward New England around the Sunday to Monday time frame. This system looks to move north and west of New England, making it an inside runner, potentially pulling milder air in from the southwest.

Secondary low development is possible, but current trends are pointing toward a later development occurring farther north. If this occurs, it would be too late to lock in cold air at the surface. This would result in the potential for a widespread mix or snow at the start before switching to plain rain from south to north. Should the secondary low trend toward a faster development farther south, colder weather would hold on longer, resulting in more wintry weather farther south in New England.

While there's plenty of time for this system to go either way (faster, stronger secondary low vs slower, weaker secondary low), there will be colder air at the surface when it arrives. With the primary low moving north and west of New England, odds are tilted toward milder air working into the region aloft. This could set up a rather messy storm, especially for northern New England, with multiple precipitation types possible. Being mid-November, precipitation types will likely be elevation-dependent as well.