New England Weather This Week: Chilly & Breezy Under a Trough

Troughing will once again dominate this week for New England, bringing chilly temperatures and a persistent breeze. Some snow and rain showers will be possible throughout the week as well, though nothing too organized.

MONDAY

A secondary area of low pressure from yesterday's system has formed and will be moving northeast across coastal New England through the day today. This will allow for another round of showers to develop today, along with some gusty winds. Overall, this shouldn't bring too much by way of impacts as the secondary low pressure system looks to remain on the weaker side.

Today may play out similar to Sunday, with showers increasing in coverage from south to north as the day goes on. These showers will mainly occur along the system's cold front, which will be slowly moving across New England today as the area of low pressure moves more northerly than easterly. Showers may become steady to heavy at times this afternoon and evening as the center of the low passes through New England.

Overall, not too much is expected from this system, with another widespread tenth of an inch to quarter of an inch of rainfall across New England today, with locally higher amounts. How much wintry precipitation falls in western New England will be a race between the colder air moving in and the end of precipitation. It does look like much of Vermont will end the day with some snow showers, with elevation-based minor accumulations.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather this afternoon (1st image) and this evening (2nd image):

As far as temperatures go, the cold front crossing New England is a strong one, especially given the time of year. This front will extend all the way down to Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, which is impressive given we're still weeks from Thanksgiving. With the system moving more northerly rather than easterly, the cold front won't really have a standard west to east motion.

This means cold air will only gradually push into New England through the day. Temperatures won't really change much through the day for much of New England, rising only a degree or two at most this afternoon. Temperatures will be dropping after morning highs for westernmost New England and a brief surge of warmth is expected across eastern Maine this evening just before the cold front arrives and the area gets into the warm sector of the system (this has been a rather complex setup over the past couple days).

Below: HRRR showing hourly temperature from around midday today through around midnight:

TUESDAY-THURSDAY

New England will become more centered within a deep trough on Tuesday. This will bring a shot of Arctic air through the east. This blast of air is more reminiscent of a mid-winter Arctic blast than an early-season cold front. Tuesday will see temperatures bottom out, with highs struggling to break out of the 30s region-wide. The northern tier of New England will likely get locked into the 20s to low 30s for highs. This will come as temperatures won't rise much from morning lows due to a cold pool of air aloft and partial to little sunshine.

Below: HRRR showing potential temperatures Tuesday afternoon:

On top of the new-found cold temperatures, it will be persistently gusty as well. A well-mixed atmosphere, broad cyclonic flow and strong cold air advection will result in sustained winds of up to 20mph with gusts in the 30 to 40mph range. With broad cyclonic flow and troughing remaining in place for much of the week, the breeze will remain elevated through the weekend. Tuesday should be the windiest day of the week, however, with only breezy conditions thereafter.

The broad cyclonic flow will also allow for some unsettled weather to continue. Upslope snow showers will continue for the mountains on Tuesday. Outside of the mountains, the unstable atmosphere could allow for spot snow or rain showers anywhere in New England. There is a low chance for some snow squalls, but given there's no real mode of forcing for the development of squalls (no fronts will be moving through, just an unstable atmosphere will be present), any activity will be scattered and disorganized at best.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Tuesday afternoon:

Snow showers will be most persistent in the mountains of northern New England on Tuesday (as well as Wednesday and Thursday). Snowfall through Tuesday across Vermont and northern New Hampshire will likely be in the 1-3 inch range. Being early November, this will be generally elevation-based, with Jay Peak in northern Vermont likely getting a jackpot of 3-5 inches.

Wednesday will likely be the cloudiest day of the week as a subtle system passes to the north of New England. The jury is still out on just how much forcing this system can provide for additional rain and snow showers on both Wednesday and Thursday. Overall, upslope activity will likely continue in the mountains and northern Maine with minimal to no activity popping up across the rest of New England as dry air tries to remain in place.

FRIDAY & WEEKEND

Heading toward the weekend, broad troughing aloft will remain in place for the east. With that said, a brief ridge of surface high pressure is favored to build into the region from the west on Friday and Saturday. This would bring an end to mountain snow activity and allow for generally more sunshine. The trough overhead and a cold front from the passing system around midweek will keep temperatures on the chilly side, with widespread 30s and 40s for highs. The next system may approach around next Sunday or Monday.

Below: Current weather map for Saturday morning (November 15):