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Cutoff Low Just Keeps Spinning...(again)

Here's a fun little call back. A year ago, on June 6th, 2023, we published an article titled "Cutoff Low Just Keeps Spinning." Here we are one year later, with the same title ringing true for 2024. The setup this year is different from last year, which will result in a different outcome from the chilly, exceptionally dreary weather seen last June.

This year, the large-scale, closed upper low has been sitting around Ontario, to New England's northwest. While this low is helping to promote plenty of clouds and scattered shower chances over New England, it also keeps New England in a more westerly flow, which helps to keep temperatures from remaining chilly and raw throughout the day.

Compare this with June 2023, when a low that was completely cutoff from the main flow (the low this year is more "closed" rather than fully cutoff, meaning it is partially detached from the main flow) sat just to New England's east. This promoted a moist, chilly onshore flow that brought more numerous showers and cooler temperatures.

With that said, there are no washouts in the picture during this unsettled stretch of weather. On Friday, afternoon and evening showers will fire up around New England. These showers will generally be more numerous in northern New England, closer to the low, but spot showers are possible anywhere in the region. The day will likely see at least partial sunshine develop for southern and central New England with northern areas remaining cloudier all day.

HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon Friday:

On Saturday, the upper level low will slowly push eastward. The low will be nearly overhead of northern New England on Saturday. This will produce a day similar to Friday with scattered afternoon showers around, again, more numerous in northern New England. Southern New England will likely see little shower activity with most staying completely dry. Cloud cover will be similar to Friday with more coverage the farther north you go.

On Sunday, a shortwave disturbance will likely round the base of the trough, spreading more numerous showers back into southern New England. It's still not looking like a washout of a day anywhere in New England, just more of the same with scattered showers firing up. The day will likely be cloudier and cooler than the previous couple days. Monday will see the upper low continue its slow eastward journey away from New England. The upper low looks to depart by mid-week.

As stated before, temperatures will generally not be chilly and raw during this time like last year (when places like Boston and Portland were struggling to make it into the 60s at times). With that said, summer-like heat will be elusive with 70s dominating. The northern tier of New England will be generally cooler (relative to average) as they will be closer to the upper low, bringing more clouds and showers through Monday. The upper low will likely depart by Tuesday. Once it does, a period of ridging will likely take over, bringing drier weather.

Weather map for Tuesday showing a ridge of high pressure building to the west:

There is considerable uncertainty in how next week will play out, particularly from midweek onward. This uncertainty has to do with another disturbance heading toward New England. If this disturbance gets cutoff, it could lead to a longer period of unsettled weather once again. If the system remains within the main flow, it would lead to a brief period of unsettled weather before a drying and warming trend initiates for late in the week.

Either way, a warming trend looks to begin heading toward the end of next week. This is supported by the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook, which currently covers June 14-20. This will hinge on the placement of a trough off the east coast relative to New England.



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