Drier, Warmer Days on tap for New England Next Week

A frontal boundary is stalled south of New England with a wave of low pressure riding along it. This has brought widespread showers to southern and central New England this morning. As this boundary continues to very slowly sink farther south, a general drying trend will continue from north to south. By the afternoon, all but southernmost New England should be just about out of the wettest weather.

Despite this, a brisk flow off the ocean will continue throughout the day, setting up a typical onshore flow regime. This will keep clouds around with raw temperatures through the afternoon. Occasional drizzle or rain showers will also remain possible in the afternoon, especially near the coast.

Below: Potential weather around mid-afternoon today:

The onshore flow and chilly pocket of air in the low levels will create a temperature inversion across the region, with the warmest conditions across the north and gradually cooling moving south, though it won't be particularly warm anywhere in New England this weekend. Highs may struggle to climb out of the upper 50s along the coast.

A continued onshore flow on Sunday will keep the clouds and cooler temperatures around, especially for southern New England and the entire coastal plain. After some back and forth, it looks like surface high pressure and drier air will win out on Sunday with just a few showers around, if that. The frontal boundary will still be to the south of the region with high pressure to the north. With this setup in place, the weather will be warmer and drier the farther north you go in the region as you get away from the influence of both the boundary and the ocean once again.

Below: Temperature departure from average this afternoon (1st image) and Sunday afternoon (2nd image):

For temperatures, a gradual warming trend is likely to commence after this weekend. Monday has been trending warmer as high pressure continues to take over with possibly more sun developing than initially anticipated. The high pressure to the north of New England will eventually slide across New England early next week before moving offshore closer to midweek.

This movement of the high offshore will support warm air advection as it helps move mild air up the east coast. With that said, the offshore placement of the high pressure will likely lead to sea breezes, which could delay the arrival of warmer air for the coastal plain, at least initially, through the middle of the week. There is also some uncertainty about areas of low pressure moving south and north of New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Should these systems create more cloud cover for New England, a trend toward cooler weather would occur, but, as of now, a gradual warming trend remains the expected outcome.

Signals have been consistent in showing a system lifting a warm front across New England late next week, likely for Thursday. This front would bring about summer heat complete with higher humidity. While timing this out in a zonal flow setup is tricky, later next week has been shown to begin a trend toward more consistent warmth for New England. A cold front following this warm front will likely knock temperatures down from their peak, but, at this point, it's more likely to bring New England back down toward late June seasonal averages.

As for precipitation chances, New England looks to be entering a drier period. A fast, zonal flow will likely be in place to start off the week. This occurs when the jet stream lays flatter across the country, allowing systems to move through quickly. Timing out systems within a fast, zonal flow is a difficult task for current weather models. Low pressure systems will be around New England for much of the week, but the placement of these systems should support more by way of typical scattered afternoon showers and storms rather than fully rainy days. There's little precipitation in the forecast through much of next week.

Below: Current 5-day precipitation forecast: