Dry Stretch to End for New England with a Couple Systems on the way

After another day under high pressure for Wednesday, the pattern will begin shifting back towards more familiar conditions for the rest of the week and into the weekend. An area of low pressure will likely begin to materialize over the Great Lakes today. This system will move eastward toward New England today, but high pressure and dry air should keep a vast majority of the region dry despite an increase in clouds.

This system will involve a primary area of low pressure passing to New England's north with potential secondary low development south of New England.  The system does look fairly weak. At this point, it looks like a quarter inch or less of rain will fall across New England Thursday and Friday as the system looks more showery rather than widespread, soaking rain.

Showers from this system look to break out across southwest New England during the overnight hours. These showers will continue to steadily spread northeast through the morning. Maine will likely see scattered showers hold off until Thursday afternoon and evening. Southern and central New England will see more numerous showers in the morning before becoming more isolated in the afternoon.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather around sunrise Thursday (1st image) and around mid-afternoon Thursday (2nd image):

Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday amid the thicker clouds and showers. Temperatures may be able to tick back up a bit for southern and central New England on Friday with less numerous showers and thinner clouds. There's a higher chance for lingering showers on Friday across the northern tier of New England as a frontal boundary crosses the region. Overall, New England will be in-between systems on Friday.

Heading into Friday night and Saturday, a cutoff low area of low pressure meandering to New England's north will lead to unsettled weather continuing. A more moisture-rich southern stream system will likely emerge off the east coast and move northeast either just offshore of New England or through New England. The exact track of this offshore system will determine just how much rain falls over New England and how much of a washout Saturday could end up being.

Similar to last week, this is another setup that would have been favorable for a snowstorm if it blew through a few months ago. This would have been one of those winter storms with a frustratingly large spread in potential snowfall amounts due to track issues. Since we're now on the cusp of June, the track issues only lead to how much rain falls. This storm won't be nearly as chilly as last week's, either.

One large difference between this storm and last week's storm is that this one appears to be much more progressive. That will help keep rainfall amounts lower than last week regardless of what track the system takes. The storm looks to enter New England Friday night and exit Saturday night. Rain will likely break out across Connecticut in the pre-dawn hours and quickly spread northeast through the morning. By the afternoon, the heaviest and most widespread rain will have likely pushed into northern New England.

Below: RGEM showing potential weather around mid-morning Saturday (1st image) and around mid-afternoon (2nd image):

The exact track of the secondary low will heavily influence rainfall totals and where the highest amounts end up in the region. These setups tend to produce their heaviest and most widespread rainfall on their north and west sides. With a track straight through New England, that would produce the most amount of rain over western and interior New England with the coastal plain getting into a dry slot. A track just over the ocean would result in more rain over eastern New England, similar to last week's storm. The track is still subject to change.

With that said, trends over the past 24 hours or so have been steadily pushing the system westward, travelling straight through New England. This would result in a longer-lasting, soaking rain for areas west and north of the storm track. Areas east and south of the track could see a dry slot develop, which is favored for Saturday afternoon. This would reduce widespread rain to just some scattered showers. All of this is to say that not all of New England will be completely washed out all day, and some areas could see some form of drying in the afternoon. Where exactly this sets up will come down to the track.

This will be another very wet stretch for New England, with a widespread 0.5-1.5 inches of rain combined between Thursday and the weekend. Thursday will see more minimal rainfall amounts with a good half inch to inch of rain blowing through on Saturday. Some areas will likely see more than an inch, which will, again, come down to where exactly Saturday's system ends up tracking. On a side note, New England's drought has officially ended and rain is no longer needed.

Below: Current precipitation forecast from now through Monday morning:

While there's a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the extended outlook, signs do point to a better chance of more sustained early summer-like warmth developing next week. A gradual breakdown of the ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern continues to be favored. A trough may begin to develop over the southwest United States, which could favor ridging over the northeast. New England's potential warm-up after early next week is subject to fall apart, but signs have been consistently pointing toward more consistent warmer weather.