Frontal System set to Cross New England Today

Today will be another mild day as most of New England will be sitting within the warm sector of a frontal system as a warm front lifts northward. This front was responsible for this morning's showers. The primary low will continue to move eastward to the north of New England on Monday with a secondary low likely spawning in the vicinity of the Gulf of Maine later in the day on Tuesday, bringing more showers to New England Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Energy will dive into the trough Tuesday afternoon, allowing for a secondary low to develop along the system's triple point (where a warm, cold and occluded front meet) near Maine's coast. This will allow scattered showers to re-develop across the region in the afternoon. Showers in the afternoon will be more numerous across northern New England, but showers will be possible anywhere in the region through today.

As the primary low passes New England to the north, it will drag its cold front across the region through the afternoon and evening hours. This front will provide the forcing for scattered shower development this afternoon. Most areas will likely see the re-development of showers in the mid to late afternoon hours.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:

Another area to watch this afternoon and evening will be the potential for some instability to develop. Steep lapse rates (the rapid decrease in temperature with altitude) indicate some instability to allow for rumbles of thunder. The best chance for this to happen would be from the forcing along the cold front. This potential will be dictated by how much daytime heating can occur along with cloud cover.

Should clouds remain stubborn throughout the day, the potential for thunder would be reduced significantly. Even with breaks in the clouds to allow for some instability to build within the warm sector, any thunder activity will likely be more isolated than anything. Given a cold pool of air aloft, some graupel or very small hail would be possible. This would be most likely across western New England.

Below: Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook today:

Moving into Tuesday evening, much of New England will begin to dry out (outside of a few spots showers from residual moisture behind the front). Across much of Maine, however, both the primary and secondary lows will be moving through the state. A strong jet streak along with lift and forcing from the strengthening secondary low will bring a widespread shield of rain, likely moderate to heavy at times given elevated precipitable water values.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather this evening:

Behind the cold front, a period of breezy to gusty winds is expected. It does look like gusts will stay generally below impactful levels, with a majority likely remaining below 40mph. These gusts will help usher in chillier air. Wind chills Wednesday morning will likely be in the 20s to low 30s region-wide.

On Wednesday, the low pressure system that was responsible for today's weather will strengthen and park itself across the Canadian Maritimes. This will keep New England under broad cyclonic flow through Thursday morning. Broad cyclonic flow is synonymous with cooler days, breezy to gusty winds and large puffy clouds developing with the chance for spotty showers.

This will generally be the case on Wednesday, though most areas will likely end up staying dry. Winds are once again expected to remain below impactful levels, with gusts generally below 35mph. With that said, should more sunshine manage to prevail, some gusts could get stronger.

Below: Euro showing potential wind gusts Wednesday afternoon:

While a majority of New England will be remaining dry during this time, the higher terrain of northern New England will see an extended upslope snow shower event. Flow will turn upslope tonight and with sharply colder weather incoming behind the front, persistent snow showers will break out at elevation. These snow showers will likely last through Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

Little, if any, snow accumulations are expected below 1,500 feet or so. These snow showers will likely remain focused along and directly over the mountains, with the Green Mountains seeing generally more activity than the White or Maine mountains. Several inches will be possible along the ridge tops. Ski resorts still operating may get another late season coating (Jay Peak, Killington, Sugarbush and Sugarloaf come to mind).

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Wednesday afternoon:

New England's next system will likely slide into the region from the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. This system will lift a warm front through New England, putting much of the region in the warm sector. This system doesn't appear to have a clear connection to the Gulf, so total rainfall will likely remain on the lighter side. Northern New England will have a better chance at more numerous showers. Central and southern New England have very low washout potential. It may even end up mostly dry in southern New England.

With New England in the warm sector on Saturday, temperatures will likely be pretty mild. Widespread highs in the 50s north to 60s south will be likely. Southern and central New England could climb well into the 60s. The clouds and showers may limit just how warm it can get, but should the sun manage to break out across southern New England Saturday, some areas could top the 70° mark.