Just How Wet Will Saturday End up Being?

Temperatures will be cooler today amid the thicker clouds and isolated showers. Temperatures may be able to tick back up a bit for southern and central New England on Friday with less numerous showers and thinner clouds. There's a higher chance for lingering showers on Friday across the northern tier of New England as a frontal boundary crosses the region. Overall, New England will be in-between systems on Friday.

Below: FV3 showing potential weather early Friday afternoon:

Heading into Friday night and Saturday, a cutoff low area of low pressure meandering to New England's north will help produce the next round of rain. A more moisture-rich southern stream system will likely emerge off the east coast and move through the region as another nor'easter. The exact track of this offshore system will determine just how much rain falls over New England and whether Saturday ends up as an all-day washout or just part of the day (mainly in the morning for southern New England). Depending on how things shake out, some areas could even see some breaks of sun in the afternoon.

There remains a decent spread in potential tracks among guidance in regards to the nor'easter. If this was a few months ago, there would be major stress over figuring out where a rain/snow line would set up. There would also be a frustratingly large spread in potential snowfall amounts. Since we're now on the cusp of June, the track issues only lead to how much rain falls. This storm won't be nearly as chilly as last week's nor'easter either, as only the highest summits of New Hampshire are expected to potentially see some snow.

One large difference between this storm and last week's storm is that this one appears to be much more progressive. The storm looks to enter New England Friday night and exit Saturday night. Rain will likely break out across Connecticut in the pre-dawn hours and quickly spread northeast through the morning. By the afternoon, the heaviest and most widespread rain will have likely pushed into northern New England.

Below: GFS showing general weather around mid-morning Saturday (1st image) and early afternoon Saturday (2nd image):

The exact track of the secondary low will heavily influence rainfall totals and where the highest amounts end up in the region. A track straight through New England would produce the most amount of rain over western and interior New England with areas closer to the coast getting into a dry slot with more scattered activity rather than widespread. A track just over the ocean would result in more rain over eastern/coastal New England, similar to last week's storm. This track would also allow lighter and more scattered shower activity across western New England.

As stated before, there remains a decent spread among guidance in exactly where the storm will track. A track straight through New England remains the favored outcome, which results in higher rainfall (possibly 1-2 inches) falling across western portions of southern New England and interior New Hampshire and Maine. A good half inch to inch will be possible outside of these areas. With that said, some models continue to show the storm tracking near Cape Cod, which would pull these higher amounts closer to the coast.

Below: Western outlier of the storm track (1st image; FV3) and eastern outlier (2nd image; NAM). You can see the low track varying from western Connecticut to just east of Cape Cod:

These setups tend to produce their heaviest and most widespread rainfall on their north and west sides. Areas east and south of the track could see a dry slot develop, which is favored for Saturday afternoon. This would reduce widespread rain to just some scattered showers. This is to say that not all of New England will be washed out all day, and some areas could see some form of drying in the afternoon. Where exactly this sets up will come down to the track. As of now, this continues to be favored to occur across southern and maybe central New England New England.

Timing of the system will also come into play. Guidance is also split on the start and end times of the storm. Some favor the system blowing in very early Saturday morning, which would allow for an earlier exit on Saturday while others have the bulk of the storm occurring all day Saturday. Generally, widespread rain will end from south to north; exactly when this shutoff begins and how quickly it pushes north remains a question. Depending on the track and speed, southern New England could even see some breaks of sun Saturday afternoon.

All of this uncertainty isn't a surprise since this is a cutoff low. These systems can be notoriously difficult to predict as they are cut off from the Main flow (hence the name). This allows the storm to basically make its own rules; stalling out, moving westward and making loops over the region. While this one isn't retrograding or making loops, the mere fact its cutoff is giving guidance a lot of trouble.

While the nor'easter will lift north and east by Saturday night, the upper-level, cutoff low will linger just to the north through Sunday, resulting in continued cool conditions with plenty of clouds and some showers. With the low to the north, the best chance for some lingering showers on Sunday will be across the northern tier of New England. After this system passes, a gradual warm-up to early summer-like temperatures continues to look likely through next week.

Below: Current weather map for Sunday (June 1):