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Major Warm-up; Some Showers Incoming to New England

Writer's picture: Tim DennisTim Dennis

Tuesday will be similar to Monday for New England with highs in the 40s north to 50s south. The day will remain mostly cloudy as a warm front approaches from the west. This front will begin to push into western New England this afternoon and evening. The warm front will push across New England overnight tonight, spreading across all but eastern Maine by Wednesday morning. This front will usher in both much warmer temperatures and much needed shower chances.



This warm front will carry with it an increase in moisture in the atmosphere, which will help scattered showers break out this evening across western New England. These showers will push eastward throughout the overnight hours. The best forcing for showers will be across northern New England. Widespread light rain is looking more likely for Vermont and New Hampshire tonight. There will be less, lighter and more scattered activity in southern New England.


With that said, shower chances appear to have increased for southern New England over the past 24 hours or so. It will be light and still won't be enough to make a dent in the rainfall deficit or end the wildfire risk, but we'll take whatever we can get at this point.


Below: HRRR showing potential weather Tuesday evening (1st image) and overnight (2nd image):


Rainfall totals are looking to be around a quarter inch in northern New England with some areas, mainly in the mountains, seeing up to a half an inch. Rainfall amounts will drop the farther south in New England you go, with the best chance of getting near a quarter of an inch will be near the northern Massachusetts border. Moving farther south of the northern Mass border, a tenth of an inch or less remains more likely.



Showers will clear out of most of New England by sunrise Wednesday. Scattered showers will likely persist through the morning in eastern Maine, becoming more isolated as the day goes on. Wednesday will be day one of a brief, but major, warm-up for New England. On the other side of the warm front, strong warm air advection will occur with an area of high pressure centered to New England's southwest. This will allow temperatures to begin to soar.


Below: Temperature anomaly at the 850mb (about 4,700 feet above sea level) level on Tuesday (1st image) and Wednesday (2nd image). Good mixing will allow temperatures at the surface to respond, with plenty 60s and 70s (and some low 80s) on Wednesday and Thursday:


There will be decent temperature gradient that will set up across Maine as the warm front will take longer to cross the state. Highs for most of New England on Wednesday will reach into the 60s to low 70s. Eastern Maine, however, may be held to the mid 50s. Clouds cover will also likely linger across the state while the rest of New England begins to see at least some clearing.


Below: Euro showing potential temperatures early Wednesday afternoon


The peak of this late season warmth will come on Halloween, as has been advertised for several days now. With all of New England firmly within the warm sector, high pressure set up to the southwest, more sunshine and good mixing, it is a perfect recipe for one of the warmest Halloweens on record for New England. Highs will be in the 70s for most, if not all, of New England with the typical warm spots of southern New Hampshire maybe pushing toward the 80° mark.



While the fire risk has been slightly reduced to start this week, it will become more elevated for Wednesday through the rest of the week. Higher temperatures combined with an increase in winds will continue to allow fires to easily spread. Overnight lows will also be significantly warmer during this time frame. On top of that, good mixing may allow for drier air to mix down to the surface.


Unless tonight's rain can somehow over-perform, southern New England will be dealing with continued brush fires all week. Hundreds of fires have broken out across all of New England over the past week, with many igniting in the last 48 hours. A cold front on Friday will bring another round of very limited showers. It may even be a dry passage for much of New England. There are no widespread soaking rains in the picture for southern New England.


Below: National Interagency Fire Center significant fire potential for October 31:


Colder air will likely lag behind the cold front, so, as a result, Friday's temperatures have trended upward. Widespread highs in the 60s and 70s will likely continue for a third day. The real cooler air will be felt over the weekend with a return to the 50s.



There are significant discrepancies in what will happen after this weekend. It will likely remain generally on the mild side, but there may be more chances at some rainfall. While a widespread soaking is far from guaranteed, we may be starting to head in the right direction to get some more precipitation. A system is currently looking to pass to the north early next week, but it's far too early to try to go into detail about how much it may bring rain-wise (if anything).


Below: Current Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook, covering next week:





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About Me

My name is Timothy Dennis. I'm a weather enthusiast who was born and raised here in New England. All my life I have been fascinated by the weather. Here I write about New England's current weather while documenting past weather events. 

 

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