New England Gets Break from Unsettled Weather Before the Next Trough

After spending the better part of a week under a cutoff area of low pressure, New England has finally flipped the script (for the time being) and will spend the next couple days under high pressure. This will bring drier days with warmer temperatures. This will be followed by another well-established trough late this week and into the weekend, bringing more unsettled weather back into the picture.

Below: Weather map for Tuesday afternoon:

High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in dry weather and an offshore flow. This will help boost temperatures back to early summer levels for inland areas. The offshore flow will likely be weak enough to allow for a sea breeze to develop, keeping the coast a notch cooler.

The overall setup during this time will see high pressure and ridging over Canada and the northeast with an area of low pressure and troughing farther south and west in the United States. This setup will likely result in cooler and unsettled weather in the southern area of low pressure with warmer and dry weather in the northern area of high pressure. Eastern Maine will be the farthest removed from the trough to our southwest midweek, so they will be the warmest Tuesday and Wednesday (and Thursday).

Below: Forecast temperature departure from average on Wednesday, showing warmth over Canada and with cooler weather over the south and central United States. New England is caught in the middle, with Maine looking at the warmest temperatures:

An area of low pressure will likely begin to materialize over the Great Lakes on Wednesday. The high pressure over New England looks to keep the region dry, but an approaching warm front and an increasing southerly flow will likely allow for plenty of cloud development. Any precipitation with this system is likely to hold off until Wednesday night at the earliest.

By Thursday, the area of high pressure will have moved offshore, making room for the slow-moving trough of low pressure to push into the region. This will bring back showers and cooler temperatures for Thursday. At this point, it looks like most in New England will see the bulk of showers from this system from Thursday afternoon (western areas) through Friday morning (eastern areas).

This system will involve a primary area of low pressure passing to New England's north with potential secondary low development south of New England.  The system doesn't look nearly as strong as last week's nor'easter. At this point, it looks like a quarter inch or less of rain will fall across New England Thursday and Friday, though this could trend up depending on how everything ends up setting up.

Part of the setup that will determine exactly how much rain falls and how the system plays out overall will be the development and timing of the secondary low. Should this low form, it would result in cooler conditions with a more onshore flow as opposed to a more southerly flow. It would also result in less-defined frontal boundaries crossing the region and a lower chance for thunderstorms.

Below: Current precipitation forecast for Thursday:

Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday amid the thicker clouds and showers regardless of whether or not a secondary low develops. Temperatures may be able to tick back up a bit for southern and central New England on Friday with less numerous showers and thinner clouds. There's a higher chance for lingering showers on Friday across the northern tier of New England as a frontal boundary crosses the region.

Over the weekend, a cutoff low area of low pressure meandering to New England's north will lead to unsettled weather continuing. A more moisture-rich southern stream system will likely emerge off the east coast and move northeast either just offshore of New England or through New England. The exact track of this offshore system will determine just how much rain falls over New England and how much of a washout Saturday could end up being. There remains a pretty large range in outcomes from a soaking rain to a few showers and thunderstorms.

Similar to last week, this is another setup that would have been favorable for a snowstorm if it blew through a few months ago. This would have been one of those winter storms with a frustratingly large spread in potential snowfall amounts due to track issues. Since we're now on the cusp of June, the track issues only lead to how much rain falls.

One large difference between this storm and last week's storm is that this one appears to be much more progressive. That will help keep rainfall amounts lower than last week regardless of what track the system takes. A drying trend will be likely for the second half of the weekend, but shower chances will likely stick around through Sunday. This setup will lead to a well-established trough across the northeast this weekend as our trough-dominated stretch continues.

Below: 500mb height anomaly Saturday afternoon, showing a general ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern continuing:

While there's a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the extended outlook, signs do point to a better chance of more sustained summer-like warmth developing next week. A gradual breakdown of the ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern continues to be favored. A trough may begin to develop over the southwest United States, which could favor ridging over the northeast.