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New England's Latest Soaking Ends; Drier & Milder Days Ahead

After yet another round of rain for New England, rivers have once again become swollen. As of Saturday morning, 15 river gauges are at, or expected to reach, minor flood stage. A handful of reports of flooded roads came out of Maine yesterday.


River flood warnings as of Saturday morning:


This is just the latest in what has generally been a wet and stormy past several months. Since November, many cities, especially in central and southern New England, are running anywhere from 10 to close to 20 inches above average for the six month time span November to April.



Saturday begins a relative drying trend, though the region will remain under broad cyclonic flow. This will allow mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers to develop in the afternoon. A vast majority of the day will be dry, but there will be showers around in places.



There is a chance for heavier showers (along with graupel and maybe thunder) across eastern Maine as a colder air aloft moves over warm surface conditions. As a matter of fact, northern Maine will likely be the warmest spot in New England today, where highs will reach into the low 60s whereas the rest of the region stays in the upper 40s to mid 50s.


Expected weather Saturday afternoon:


After a mainly dry start to Sunday, a clipper-type system will zip through New England in the afternoon and evening. This will spread another round of showers into the region. Showers will be more numerous and heavier in nature across southern New England, mainly Connecticut and western Massachusetts, but showers will be possible anywhere from Sunday afternoon through the night.


Expected weather Sunday evening:


There is the potential for some thunderstorms to develop with this system in southern New England. This would most likely occur across Connecticut, but the most instability will be kept just to New England's southwest. The system's warm sector will likely be kept just out of New England, keeping the potential for any severe weather out of the region. This can be seen in the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for Sunday, capping the marginal risk of severe weather in New York.


Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook for Sunday:



After this system zips through, a dry and mild Boston Marathon is in store for Monday. It'll be a bit warm for runners with highs into the mid 60s. Dew points will start off in the low 40s before a northwest flow helps dry the air a bit with dew points falling to the mid 30s in the afternoon. It'll be a beautiful day for spectators.


Tuesday will be more of the same seen on Monday with dry and mild weather. Unsettled weather is looking to return for the second half of next week as the next system pushes through the region.


Weather map for Thursday (April 18):


There are signals pointing toward a potentially drier and lower-impact end to April for New England after next week's system. This comes as a more progressive and zonal flow may set up for the United States. This wouldn't necessarily shut off precipitation, but a zonal pattern could bring New England a break in these higher-impact, heavy precipitation events that have been seen throughout the winter and now into the spring.


Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precipitation outlook:


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