New England's Upcoming Temperature Outlook

Yesterday, we went into more detail about precipitation chances while briefly touching on temperatures, so today we'll do the opposite. Overall, New England's temperatures will remain rather varied through this weekend. After that, more distinct trends begin to emerge for the remainder of May. Today's highs will continue to be split across New England with a southwesterly flow bringing more 70s to the interior and north. An offshore high pressure will continue the easterly flow off the ocean, keeping the coastal plain in the 60s.

Below: HRRR showing afternoon temperatures today:

Friday will see a tick up in temperatures for many as an increasingly strong and moist southerly flow develops ahead of a system approaching from our west. There will be much less of an onshore component. Humidity will be ticking up through the week, likely reaching the highest levels of this young warm season thus far late this week.

The weekend will be influenced by a frontal system passing through the region. This system will lift its warm front through the region throughout the day. This will place at least southern and central New England within the system's warm sector. This will allow humidity to continue to tick up. Actual temperatures will likely end up a notch cooler than Friday thanks to plenty of clouds and showers/thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

The frontal system's cold front will cross New England Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a cooler air mass. With that said, temperatures across coastal New England will likely end up around Saturday's levels or even a touch warmer as the front will switch the wind direction from an onshore influence (easterly) to an offshore one (westerly). In the spring, temperatures often hinge greatly on which way the wind blows. With a chilly ocean, subtle changes in wind direction can have an oversized impact on where temperatures end up.

Below: Temperature departure from average for Sunday afternoon, showing a noticeably milder coastal plain:

Scattered showers and potential thunderstorms will be possible throughout New England each afternoon through this weekend with extended periods of dry weather in between. Precipitation will likely be most numerous Saturday afternoon as the warm sector of the frontal system will provide the basis for numerous showers/storms to pop up.

The timing of the cold front passage will determine what the thunderstorm threat will be. Areas that see the cold front pass closer to the afternoon/evening will have a higher storm threat. These areas will also have a threat for strong to severe storms as well, though this chance remains on the lower end overall.

Below: Current thunderstorm outlook for Saturday:

Sunday's cold front is a sign of things to come for next week. A re-enforcing cold front is currently expected to slip into New England on Monday. This will bring the temperature down for everyone, including those that will see a milder Sunday. This weekend's upper-level low will slowly drift away through early next week. This will keep New England under general troughing. Temperatures aloft continue to look persistently cold, keeping surface temperatures on the cooler side as well.

Heading into the latter part of next week, a new low pressure system looks to develop and cross New England, keeping the pattern on the wetter and unsettled side. This will also help keep temperatures down as unrelenting troughing keeps hold over the region. Overall, next week will likely feature plenty of clouds and a chilly breeze.

For those looking for the start of summer weather, next week is a lost cause, plain and simple. This upcoming week has been shown to be persistently chilly for a little while now. We first brought up this cool-down in our "weather this week" article this past Monday. Widespread highs in the 50s and 60s will be likely throughout next week with little to no indications of anything warmer at any point.

Below: Temperature departure from average for next Wednesday (May 21):

Overall, the second half of May is looking to be on the cooler side. Heading toward the end of next week, a more distinct ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern is being shown to set up. Should this verify, temperatures will be held back to close out May, for the most part. This can be seen on the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook, which currently covers May 22-28. This outlook is very indicative of a ridge-trough setup with the east in the trough.