New England Stays Unsettled with Systems Incoming Sunday and Tuesday

New England will be staying generally unsettled over the coming week as troughing once again dominates the region. The first chance for snow showers will come throughout the day today. A broad upper-level low will be sitting just north of New England, generating broad cyclonic flow over the region. This will bring large, puffy cloud development, windy conditions and the potential for pop-up snow showers and flurries with more persistent snow across the mountains.

The most persistent activity is likely across the higher terrain (Greens, Whites and Berkshires, namely). Pop-up sprinkles or flurries will be possible anywhere in New England, however. A general 2-4 inches of snow will be possible across northern Vermont and New Hampshire by Saturday morning. A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Berkshire county. Snow showers will likely develop in earnest by late morning and peak in coverage by late afternoon.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:

Despite the fact that the cold front passed yesterday, cold air advection will occur in earnest today. Highs will struggle to reach 40° anywhere in the region, and northern areas remaining below freezing, in the 20s and low 30s. The breeze will add even more bite to the air, with 25-35mph gusts. Gusts will be strongest across southern New England on Friday and weakest across eastern Maine. Winds will gradually settle over the weekend, except for eastern Maine, who will see gustier conditions on Saturday as the overall setup shifts east.

New England's next system will arrive later Sunday and into Monday. This system will take an interior storm track. This would result in another setup with a warm front lifting northward, resulting in a milder storm. This milder air will be overrunning colder air settled at the surface, so mixed precipitation or snowfall is possible across interior northern areas and the higher terrain, with a switch to plain rain occurring from south to north. This system appears that it will be quick-moving as well, resulting in a low-impact system.

Northern New England may see some snow showers break out Sunday morning as the warm front lifts northward. Rain and snow will generally fill in as the day goes on, likely becoming its most widespread across New England by Sunday evening. By the time precipitation arrives for southern and central New England, temperatures will have already warmed well beyond freezing, allowing for all plain rain. Any mixing across northern New England (especially in the river valleys and foothills) will change to plain rain as the evening wears on.

Below: Euro showing potential weather around late Sunday afternoon:

For the mountains and northward, the system may move fast enough for this to be all or mostly snow. That is to say the bulk of precipitation may be moving out by the time the rain/snow line would arrive. This system is weak overall, and the quick-moving nature of it will limit accumulations. A couple inches of snow is possible, mainly across the northern half of Maine.

Below: Chances of at least 2 inches of snow Sunday and Sunday night:

New England's next storm will follow quickly behind, likely arriving Tuesday or Tuesday evening. A deepening low pressure will likely be pulling out of the Mid-Atlantic and pushing northeast toward New England. The overall setup and position of this system will favor cyclogenesis, especially with the colder air setting up over land and a still relatively warm ocean here at the beginning of the season. Exactly where the system tracks remains a big question (as it so often does), but a more widespread wintry storm is certainly on the table.

Trends over the past 48 hours or so have certainly been toward the system passing close to New England rather than getting suppressed to the south. The current range in track spans from passing around the benchmark to directly over eastern New England. Should the system pass offshore around the benchmark, it would bring widespread snow and mixing to southern and central New England. Should the system pass inside the benchmark (closer to land) it would introduce more mixing and plain rainfall into the picture for southern New England. This would push the heavier snowfall potential into interior northern New England.

Trends have been steadily pushing the system farther north and west over the past couple days. Should this trend continue, we would continue to head toward the potential for more rainfall and mixing across southern New England (maybe even southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine as well). Basically, the closer the storm comes to New England, the farther north and west the rain/snow line would push. At this point, a miss to the south is becoming more and more unlikely (but it would be uncomfortable to rule it out completely at this time range).

Below: Current probability of impactful winter weather Tuesday to Wednesday morning:

It should be noted that yesterday evening's update of the graphic above showed a 50% zone draped over central New England. This has been removed as probabilities once again top out at 30%. This is likely due to the fact that the system has continued to generally trend closer to land, potentially introducing more mixing and rainfall. Whether this trend continues to push the system inland, stalls where it is or even pulls back remains to be seen. At five days out, anything remains possible; frustrating as that may be.