New England Weather This Week: Another Mainly Dry One

It'll be another quiet week with minimal chances for showers across New England. A bit of a warm-up will be coming at times before a cold front brings a very autumn feel late this week.

Below: Current 7-day precipitation outlook:

MONDAY & TUESDAY

High pressure will be located directly over New England to start this week. This will continue the overall trend of tranquil and dry weather with mainly sunny skies. Highs will be right around seasonable levels as well, though a bit warmer for northern New England as they'll be closer to a strong ridge over eastern Canada. With high pressure comes a weak flow, so an onshore will develop, keeping the coast a notch cooler than the rest. Overall, 70s will dominate high temperatures each day.

Below: Temperature departure from average for Tuesday afternoon:

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY

Around midweek, an area of low pressure will creep up the east coast. This system still looks to stall south of New England; likely not making it farther north than the New Jersey coastline. The system will then move eastward, blocked from New England by continued high pressure over the region. The system may come close enough to bring showers to southern New England. An onshore flow around this system may bring more clouds and cooler temperatures for all areas near the coast as well.

As always with these sorts of slow-moving systems to the south, the question is how far north can showers push into the region. The farther south in New England you go, the higher the chance of seeing anything. At this point, however, even southernmost New England is looking at no more than a couple tenths of an inch of rainfall, so widespread precipitation anywhere remains unlikely. There does remain an overall spread, however, so trends will be watched. Either way, this system will not push far enough north to bring northern New England anything.

On the temperature side, Wednesday will likely end up a notch cooler for southern New England as the passing low pressure brings clouds and an onshore flow. Temperatures will begin to climb once again on Thursday as a southwest low takes over ahead of a cold front. Northern New England, remaining under the influence of high pressure will see a mild day both Wednesday and Thursday (the coastal plain of northern New England will be cooler Wednesday as well, however).

Below: Temperature departure from average for Wednesday afternoon:

FRIDAY

A cold front will push through New England Thursday night through Friday, bringing with it a cooler air mass. At this point, the northern third of New England is likely to see the cooler air move in for Friday while southern and central New England see one more mild day. Highs across the north country look to top out in the 60s while mid 70s to low 80s are likely for everyone else, but the cooler air mass will be working southward through the day.

The southern stream storm track will remain well south of New England, so low pressure formation or increased moisture along this frontal boundary is not expected. With that said, it will likely be a mainly dry passage. With the instability of a changing air mass, there will be a chance for spotty showers as it crosses, but nothing worth writing home about. In fact, there may be increased fire weather concerns with a dry frontal passage, dry fuels and some wind from the front.

WEEKEND

By Saturday, the cold front will have cleared New England and the entire region will be under a cooler air mass. High pressure will build in behind the front, bringing dry weather with a very autumn feel in the air. Highs in the 60s will likely dominate across the entire region. The high pressure building in will originate from the Arctic, bringing these much cooler temperatures. This high will cross New England through the weekend. If the center of the high crosses overnight Saturday night, it will be a chilly night with the potential for frosts (or even freezes across northernmost New England).

Below: Current weather map for Saturday (September 20):