New England Weather This Week: Cooler; Unsettled Periods

This week will generally run on the cooler side with more periods of unsettled weather. Snow and rain showers remain poised to move through today, Tuesday and late week. The middle of the week will feature a break.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

The cold front that crossed New England today will stall to the south of New England. A wave of low pressure (a southern stream system) will ride along this stalled front today, bringing periods of rain and snow showers to the southern two thirds of the region. Precipitation will likely become more and more scattered in nature as the day goes on and it should remain light. The best chance for minor accumulations through the day will be across the Berkshires, southern Greens and Monadnocks.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon:

Later Monday into Tuesday morning, a northern stream system will likely cross near the Canadian border. This will drag a rather strong cold front across the region. This will bring colder temperatures and another round of precipitation. This northern stream system and the southern stream system will come close to phasing over New England, but, in the end, they are expected to remain separate. Snow (and rain/snow showers across southern areas) will likely come along the system's strong cold front Tuesday morning.

A track near the Canadian border isn't overly supportive of a large shield of steady snow across a large portion of New England as it enters the region early Tuesday morning. Heightened instability combined with the forcing from the front and energy from the shortwave may lead to widespread snow showers along and ahead of the cold front. Activity will likely be more widespread the farther north in New England you go. Some moisture lingering from the southern stream system may allow for snow/rain showers well ahead of the front.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Tuesday morning:

As the northern stream system continues to move north and west, it will intensify and likely spawn a surface low over Maine. This would allow for more widespread snow across interior Maine on Tuesday. A band of moderate snow will be possible, which is currently favored to set up over northern Maine. The steadiest and most widespread snow for Maine will likely come in the late morning through the evening. For the rest of New England, conditions will begin to dry out as drier, older air behind the front moves into the area.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather early Tuesday afternoon:

This event will have a better chance to bring some snow accumulations than Sunday night to Monday morning. Quick accumulations are possible across much of New England from the snow showers along the front. Snowfall will gradually increase moving north and higher in elevation as snow showers become more persistent. Over Maine, the intensifying storm will likely set up a "deformation zone" where snowfall rates may become heavier for a time. This zone occurs when an air mass changes due to stretching and strengthening fronts.

Most of northern New England will likely see a quick dusting to a couple inches, with amounts increasing moving northward. Across Maine, the deformation zone will likely allow for a band of higher amounts across northern areas. This could end up being a rather narrow band with sharp cutoffs to the north and south of it. Within this zone, 4-8 inches will be possible.

There are questions as to just how much snow can accumulate during the day Tuesday given the strong April sun angle. Precipitation rates will also generally remain on the lighter side for most, with QPF currently at a quarter inch or less, indicating a system that doesn't have a whole lot of moisture to work with. Higher snowfall across interior Maine will come down to the deformation zone and higher precipitation rates. If this doesn't happen, 4-8 inches will not be achieved anywhere.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY

High pressure will build into New England on Wednesday, bringing a brief break in this active pattern. It will remain on the cooler side after Tuesday's cold front ushers in cold air advection. Tuesday's gusty winds will likely gradually die down moving through Wednesday, but it will remain breezy, adding a bit of chill to the air.

Temperatures will likely get a notch milder on Thursday as flow turns from the southwest ahead of a warm front connected to our next system. The ridge of high pressure will shift east, but likely extend back into New England, leading to dry weather for much of the day. Clouds will likely begin to increase from west to east through the day. Precipitation chances will also increase from west to east later in the day, likely in the afternoon and evening for western areas.

FRIDAY

As the low pressure system over the Great Lakes gradually shifts eastward, shower chances will increase. The highest chance for showers will again be across western New England, however, clouds and scattered showers will likely be around for much of the region. A washout is extremely unlikely on Friday and much of the day could very well end up dry. Temperatures may fall a bit from Thursday due to the clouds and showers, but both days will likely be seasonable.

WEEKEND

That area of low pressure looks to pass to New England's south over the weekend. This points toward another Saturday with widespread showers. These showers will likely rotate into New England from southwest to northeast as the low passes to the south. While there is washout potential on Saturday, timing remains up in the air, so the main slug of rain could move through earlier or later in the day, allowing for a period of widely scattered showers.

Sunday remains very low confidence at this time, as it will all come down to the timing and evolution of the closed low near New England. As we just said, timing is up in the air, so while Sunday is currently looking much less wet than Saturday, the chance for showers remains. This chance could very well increase or decrease as the week goes on.

Below: Current weather map for Saturday (April 12):