New England Weather This Week: Dreary

This week's much discussed cool and damp weather is now upon New England. Conditions this week start off cool and breezy before ending chilly and wet.

MONDAY

This week will be kicking off with this weekend's frontal system still sitting just to New England's east. With a blocking pattern remaining in place, this system will not be moving much through the day. It may even retrograde back westward, closer to New England. This will keep plenty of clouds and some pop-up showers throughout the day.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather this afternoon:

Clouds and showers will generally be more numerous this afternoon the farther north and east you go. A rather strong ridge of high pressure is sitting over Canada's Hudson Bay. The result of this will be gusty winds through the day as well. This gusty northwest wind will help keep temperatures on the lower end, but still higher than what's coming later this week.

Below: Pressure and flow pattern this afternoon:

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY

By Tuesday, the upper-low to our east will be on the way out as it finally slides eastward, releasing its grip on the region. That strong ridge of high pressure will remain centered over New England's north and west. The result will leave New England without the influence from firm ridging or troughing for Tuesday and Wednesday. That means the weather will be dictated by the surface flow pattern, which will be out of the east/northeast.

Pressure and flow pattern on Wednesday afternoon. New England gets into weak ridging, but the onshore flow and approaching low pressure system will keep things mainly cloudy and cool:

This onshore flow will bring about typical spring conditions when the wind is generally blowing off the ocean. This results in a moist flow with plenty of clouds developing through the day. Some drizzle/light showers are possible, mainly near the coast, but overall, both days should be dry a majority of the time.

Scattered showers from an approaching system could begin to push into New England late in the day Wednesday if the system trends toward a faster arrival, which will be something to watch. This week's cooling trend will continue with each day likely a notch lower than last, with the lowest temperatures along the coastal plain.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY

A large upper-level low pressure system will begin to approach New England late in the day Wednesday. This system will likely spawn a surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This surface low will then slowly move northeastward across New England's coastal waters for the rest of the week. The result is a late-season nor'easter producing a washout and gusty winds.

While the general timing of the system is generally agreed upon by guidance, the exact track of the coastal storm system remains a point of contention. Some models bring the system right over Cape Cod while others pass it much farther offshore. The track of the system will dictate how much rain ends up falling, and how far north the steadier rain bands can push into New England. As of now, a widespread half inch to inch of rain is the consensus for southern and central New England with lighter totals moving northward.

Below: Current precipitation forecast for Thursday into Friday morning:

Should the system end up taking a route closer to land as it passes New England, more rain and more wind will be seen, especially across eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine. That ridge of high pressure hanging north of New England all week may help suppress rainfall for northern New England, keeping the bulk of rain across southern and central areas.

The general timing sees showers building in coverage and intensity across New England through the day Thursday. The peak of the storm currently looks to be toward Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers look to linger through Friday with a very gradual drying trend thereafter.

Below: Euro showing potential weather Thursday evening:

Temperatures will reach their low point on Thursday as the nor'easter will prevent temperatures from rising much (if anything) from overnight lows. After the bulk of the system, New England will remain under broad cyclonic flow with cold temperatures aloft, keeping temperatures well below average.

WEEKEND

With a blocking pattern in place, the late week system will remain nearby New England through the weekend. The system will likely be just to New England's east on Saturday, cycling plenty of clouds and scattered showers into the region through the day. The exact coverage of showers (whether the day will be mostly dry or see widespread shower activity) remains to be seen.

Below: Current weather map for Saturday morning (May 24):

A gradual drying trend is likely to continue through Sunday and Monday, though this will hinge on the system's exact timing, which is very difficult to say at this point. Blocking patterns and cutoff lows are among the trickiest things to forecast several days out, so the weekend is rather uncertain at this point in regards to just how wet or dry it will be. A gradual warming trend among high temperatures is likely after Thursday.