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New England Weather This Week: Dry Start, Wet End

This week will start off mainly sunny, dry and quiet, but another (potentially soaking) system is in the works to end the week.


MONDAY & TUESDAY


Eclipse day will feature a ridge of high pressure building into the northeast. This will provide a quiet and mainly sunny day for viewing. Some high clouds may move into western New England in the afternoon, but these likely won't block the sun completely. Some clouds may also enter northern Maine from a backdoor cold front. Highs will be in the 50s across much of northern New England with low to mid 60s in central and southern New England. The temperatures will drop several degrees during totality across the north.


NBM cloud cover percentage around 2pm (1st image) and CMC cloud fraction at 3pm. High clouds will approach from the southwest:


The quiet weather will extend into Tuesday. That backdoor cold front will likely drop through the rest of northern New England Monday evening, bringing a bit of a cool down to the northern tier. Winds will shift to an early flow, bringing a sea breeze into the picture and keeping the coast cooler than Monday as well. Interior areas away from the northern tier may have another day reaching toward 60°.



WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY


Wednesday will act as a transition day from the nice, quiet ridge back to a cloudy and damp trough. The day will see mainly cloudy skies develop and some showers breaking out. The day likely won't be a total washout and much of the day may end up dry. Some scattered showers may develop from west to east, especially in the afternoon.


The main system will approach New England for Thursday and Friday. This system will involve a surface low moving to the north of New England. This will provide a southerly flow as a warm front lifts into New England, leading to an all rain event for the entirety of New England.



The peak of this system looks to be Thursday night into Friday. The system looks to be another moisture-rich one, which will lead to a soaking rain with rounds moderate to potentially heavy rain in places. Where the heaviest bands of rain set up are to be determined, but a widespread 1-2+ inches of rain will be possible. As of now, it does look like Connecticut may be in the running for the most rain, but this could shift over the coming days.


CMC showing potential weather Friday morning:



This system could once again renew some river flooding in southern New England. Areas of northern New England that will have a snowpack will see continued melting in addition to the rainfall. This could result in a flooding risk. The extent of this is to be determined as it will come down to where the heaviest rain ends up setting up, but it will be something to watch over the coming days.


QPF (rain and melted snow) through Saturday:


WEEKEND


The weekend will see the upper trough hanging around, however, the system's cold front will likely get dragged across New England by Friday night. This would end the steady rain, but mostly cloudy conditions may be present for Saturday along with some scattered showers. There will also likely be a cool down on the backside of the front. Sunday may clear up for a very nice day, but that will come down to the storm's timing, which still needs to be finalized.


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