New England Weather This Week: Pretty Calm; Heating Up

There’s not a whole lot to say about the weather this week in New England as it will be very calm for the most part, with Friday potentially being the most active day. The biggest weather story will be the building heat and humidity through the week, which will likely peak with temperatures into the 90s and higher humidity. 

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY

After a cold frontal passage on Sunday, New England is now under the influence of a cool Canadian high pressure system to start the work week. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side (by late-July standards) along with very low humidity levels. This dry air will also make for mainly sunny skies as well. Tuesday will likely tick a notch warmer than Monday as temperatures moderate back toward seasonable levels, but a sea breeze will help keep the coasts cooler. 

Wednesday will act as a transition day toward hotter and more humid weather as the high pressure shifts to the south and east. This will promote the return of a southerly flow versus the more refreshing northerly flow early in the week. Widespread highs back into the 80s is likely with dew points ticking back up toward what is expected in July. High pressure overhead will likely promote a sea breeze, keeping the coasts cooler once again. This will also keep calm and dry conditions around as well.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY

Late this week, a heat dome will build across the south, with heat and humidity continuing to rise across New England. As we stated last week, New England will likely miss the full extent of this heat dome, sitting just on the edge. With that said, temperatures have trended hotter for southern and central New England, with widespread highs in the 90s and dew points back into the 60s. 

Below: AIFS showing potential temperatures early Friday afternoon:

A cold front approaching late this week has been trending slower due to the strong ridge of high pressure over the east coast. This means Thursday has trended drier with less thunderstorm activity and Friday has trended hotter with the cold front struggling to drop through New England. The extent of the heat on Friday will be determined by the exact timing of the cold front, but widespread highs well into the 90s will be possible for southern and central New England. The northern tier will likely be cooler with an earlier arrival of the front.

Overall, New England is on the edge of this heat dome with eastern, and especially, northern Maine remaining cooler. The timing of the cold front will also determine the extent of thunderstorm activity on Friday. There will be the potential for strong to severe storms should where the front crosses during peak daytime heating Friday afternoon and evening.

As stated before, the front has trended slower over the past 24 hours and further slowing is possible given the strong ridge of high pressure. With that said, trends will be watched as this front will determine both the extent of high heat on Friday along with how thunderstorms will play out. 

WEEKEND

The front will likely have cleared New England by the weekend, but its slow progress southward will cause it to stall near New England’s south coast as it weakens and eventually washes out. The frontal boundary remaining just to the south of New England may promote unsettled weather this weekend with rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through.

Below: Current weather map for Sunday morning (July 27) showing the front remaining south of New England:

At this point, there isn’t a large, organized low pressure system in the picture, so washouts this weekend are unlikely. With the cold front weakening, it may remain rather warm and potentially humid, but not to the extent of late this week. Overall, late this week remains rather uncertain as it will all come down to the timing and location of the cold front, which is difficult to pin down right now, especially as guidance continues to waffle on timing.