This will be a generally mild week for New England with a disruption in the middle thanks to a cold front. It'll be a quiet week with the next potential widespread storm not arriving until late in the weekend.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
The warming trend that began on Sunday will continue through Tuesday, with each day ticking a notch warmer than the last. Southerly flow will increase through this time ahead of another weak trough. Combine this with a zonal flow pushing mild Pacific air across the country, and temperatures will be back above average. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week. This comes as high pressure offshore will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to a stronger and gusty southerly winds, pumping the milder air into New England.
After a weak and compact clipper brought some snow showers to portions of northern New England this morning, the rest of this period should be mainly dry. Another weak trough will lift to the north of New England on Tuesday, lifting a warm front across the region, though neither of these features look to produce precipitation. The system's cold front will enter northern Vermont and New Hampshire by Tuesday evening, potentially bringing some scattered showers to those areas late in the day.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
To the surprise of no one, Wednesday has continued to trend cooler as a cold front moving through New England has trended a bit stronger with a push farther south than initially anticipated. Spring temperatures in New England are extremely fickle and we've reached the point in the year where mild-looking days can quickly turn much cooler due to several factors this time of year. While it won't be cold behind this front, a weak northwest flow and a cool surface high pressure will knock temperatures down a good amount from Tuesday.
The next weak, northern stream trough in this series moving through New England will likely come Wednesday night into Thursday. While moisture will be limited as the northern and southern streams remain separated and out of sync, the system may be able to spark some scattered precipitation across the region. It may be difficult for precipitation to form with dry air and high pressure just to the east in place. Any precipitation that forms will likely be snow showers overnight into the early morning, with anything lingering into Thursday switching to light rain showers.
Below: RGEM showing potential weather Thursday morning:
On top of the increased precipitation chances and clouds on Thursday, an onshore flow generated by an offshore area of high pressure will keep temperatures down closer to seasonable levels, similar to Wednesday. This is also the time of year where onshore flows have the potential to drop temperatures several notches as the breeze comes off the very cold ocean. Overall, Thursday could have a pretty raw and gloomy feel.
FRIDAY
A renewed round of warm air advection is expected to develop late in the week, boosting temperature once again. Temperatures will begin climbing once again and will likely be similar to what was seen at the beginning of this week before the cold front disruption. Overall, the day will likely have a rather similar feel to Monday, minus the morning snow showers for northern areas. Quiet weather will continue, albeit with plenty of clouds around, most likely.
WEEKEND
The large-scale flow pattern looks to trend more toward a trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern late this week and into the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient will result in a deep southerly flow, boosting temperatures and dew points. There is high confidence in above average temperatures heading into this weekend.
There is already very good agreement among guidance that a strong upper-level low pressure system will exit the central United States and approach New England late in the weekend. A deepening southerly flow ahead of this system will likely allow for a surge in temperatures ahead of the storm's arrival, making this an all-rain event. This is the next shot at an organized, widespread storm system for New England.
This system may follow a similar trend as this past week’s rain event with a shield of moderate to heavy rainfall ahead of a cold/occluded front. Gusty winds will always be a possibility in this setup, though it’s hard to give a potential magnitude on winds this far in advance, especially given the time of year when inversions can be very prominent. There will also be a better chance for substantial snowmelt across the mountains compared to last week's storm.
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