New England Weather This Week: Summer Continues

This week will continue the general theme of this summer for New England. Very high heat and elevated humidity will be followed quickly by relief later in the week. Widespread highs in the 90s early this week before a cold front brings 70s to the picture.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

A mid-level ridge will shift eastward early this week, bringing another quick bout of very high heat and humidity. Both Monday and Tuesday will see widespread highs in the upper 80s north to upper 90s south. Temperatures aloft will likely peak on Tuesday, making Tuesday a notch hotter than Monday for most. Increased humidity will bring feels-like temperatures into the low 100s for southern and central New England.

While humidity levels will be elevated during this time, they likely will not be able to reach their full potential given the overall setup. A subtle front will drop through New England on Tuesday, switching the wind direction to northwest rather than due west. This will try to advect drier air into the region aloft. With good mixing, this drier air may keep humidity at bay somewhat at the surface. It'll still be humid with dew points into the 60s for many, but it could have been much higher.

The chances for thunderstorms have dropped sharply for Monday and Tuesday as well. A lack of forcing, marginal instability and dry air aloft will make storm development difficult during this time. With that said, an isolated storm or two can't be completely ruled out, but certainly don't count on it.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY

The ridge will begin to break down on Wednesday, leading to a more zonal flow developing. A frontal system will likely approach Tuesday night before crossing New England on Wednesday into Thursday. This system will lift its warm front into the region, raising moisture content, before a cold front slides through later in the day. This will set the stage for a round of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening.

As usual, there's a spread in the timing of potential storms as it will come down to the timing of the cold frontal passage. The timing will also affect the severe thunderstorm threat. The best chance for stronger storms will be across areas that see the frontal passage in the afternoon to evening. This would put southern and central New England in the target with the better chances. The front may pass northern New England too early in the day. Overall, there's a fair amount of uncertainty in how Wednesday will play out at this time.

Moving into Thursday, the cold front will likely get hung up to the south of New England, resulting in the potential for continued unsettled weather throughout the day for the southern half of the region. Waves of low pressure will likely ride along the stalled out front, bringing clouds and bouts of showers or storms.

Given the uncertainty in where exactly the front will stall out, there's a spread in the northern extent of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Thursday. Should the front stall south of New England, the threat would be focused over southern New England. If it trends farther north, the showers would trend farther north as well. Either way, it likely won't be a washout anywhere in New England, just a continuation of scattered showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon.

Below: Euro (1st image) and GFS (2nd image) showing potential weather Thursday afternoon. You can see the spread between the northern extent of showers:

No matter how the showers pan out, Thursday will be the start of much cooler weather versus the beginning of the week. Highs across New England will likely be dominated by the 70s. Humidity will be much lower as well. Except for the potential showers across the southern half of New England, Thursday will be the start of a stretch of very nice summer weather.

FRIDAY

Friday's weather will come down to the position of the cold front. The front will likely be slowly sliding farther south, away from New England. Should it get far enough away, it will pull the scattered shower chances away from New England as well, which seems to be the favored scenario right now. If it stays nearby, Friday will end up trending wetter for southern New England. Northern New England should remain dry and very pleasant. Temperatures will remain cooler with much less humidity as well.

Below: Current precipitation forecast for Friday:

WEEKEND

This upcoming weekend is currently shaping up to be a great summer weekend. A large ridge of high pressure looks to build into New England. This is poised to bring dry conditions, seasonable temperatures and low humidity. There's currently not a whole to say about this upcoming weekend in the weather department.

Below: Current weather map for Saturday (August 2):