New England Weather This Week: Up and Down

This week's weather will see a cool and showery start and finish with a warm and dry middle. The wettest day will come Tuesday with a chance for more showers to return on Saturday. Just how far north these showers push over the weekend will be the main question.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

The beginning of this week will be on the unsettled side as a slow-moving frontal system pushes through New England. For Monday, a weak piece of energy will traverse New England, but forcing for showers will be weak given the frontal system will remain to New England's west. High pressure to the east will also feed dry air into the mid-levels, making widespread, long-lasting showers difficult to come by.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon:

On Tuesday, shower chances will become higher and much more widespread as the frontal system crosses New England. A warm front with a stronger piece of energy as opposed to Monday will first lift across New England before a cold front moves through in the afternoon and evening.

The rainfall will likely come in two batches with this system. The first and main batch of rain will move from west to east from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Many will see widespread showers during this time, however, Maine will likely see more scattered showers in nature. By the evening, a narrow line of storms may develop along the cold front. This will likely form after peak daytime heating across Vermont before falling apart as it moves east as the sun sets.

Below: HRRR showing hourly weather from sunrise Tuesday through about midnight Tuesday night:

Moisture will once again be on the rise heading into Tuesday, with precipitable water values (which measures the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere) highly elevated. Values will likely be in the 1.5-2 inch range for southern and central New England. This indicates a highly moisture-rich atmosphere that will be supportive of downpours and a few thunderstorms embedded within the showers. At this point, all of New England outside Cape Cod has a "marginal" chance for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4). Only localized, minor poor drainage flooding is expected for areas that get under a downpour.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY

Generally speaking, surface ridging looks to be in control for much of the second half of the week. This will bring drier and warmer weather with more sunshine. This change in pace will be aided by a switch to a more westerly flow, allowing for warm, downsloping winds and dry air to enter New England.

With that said, weak, broad troughing may linger at the upper-levels, allowing for some weak pieces of energy to slide through New England. Showers during this time will likely be few and far between and mostly limited to the northern third of New England. This will come as a cold front slides through New England Thursday into Friday.

Below: Current weather map for Thursday morning:

As mentioned before, this setup will generally allow for warmer air to advect back into New England after a cool start to the week. Eastern New England and the coastal plain will warm the most during this time as the westerly winds will warm as they come down from the mountains of western New England. The northern third of New England and the higher elevations of western New England will remain cooler as a cold front enters the picture.

Below: Euro showing temperature departure from average on Thursday afternoon:

WEEKEND

Shower chances will begin to increase once again heading into the weekend. A frontal boundary looks to stall to the south of New England. This boundary will likely see an area of low pressure ride along it. At this point, the weekend may see a battle between this low pressure to the south and an area of high pressure to the north. This high pressure could help suppress the front to the south.

For this reason, the farther south you go in New England, the higher the shower chances are on Saturday with higher chances of the high pressure winning out farther to the north. Where exactly the line sets up between drier weather and high pressure and wetter weather and low pressure across New England remains to be seen. Either way, the weekend will be another cool one for New England.

Below: Current weather map for Saturday (June 14):