The up and down temperatures will continue throughout this week for New England. We'll reach the top of the temperature roller coaster on Halloween. There are a couple of shower chances this week as well, but a widespread, soaking rain for all of New England remains out of the picture.
MONDAY
A secondary cold front will move offshore today. This front will provide a reinforcing shot of chilly air, leading to Monday being the chilliest day of this stretch. High pressure builds back into New England at the surface, leading to calmer winds than the previous couple days. This will help lower the fire weather concerns, but continued dry conditions and very low humidity will keep the risk around and this risk will remain in place until widespread rain comes.
Highs will be in the 40s to low 50s, with many areas likely struggling to reach that 50° mark. A cold pool aloft will be gradually lifting out of New England today, but very dry air and high pressure at the surface will prevent any showers development and may even limit cloud development as well. Skies will likely see variable clouds.
500mb height anomaly for Monday showing a cold pool/trough moving out with a ridge beginning to build in from the west:
TUESDAY
Tuesday morning will be the coldest of the season thus far for much of New England. Morning lows will be in the 20s to mid 30s as very low dew points, light winds and mainly clear skies allow for great radiational cooling conditions. Widespread freezing temperatures are likely with only the lower Connecticut River Valley and immediate coast more likely to remain above 32°.
During the day Tuesday, high pressure will shift to the east, allowing a more southerly flow. This will bring about a decent recovery from the cold morning lows. Highs may be able to get a notch warmer than Monday, but, overall, temperatures will be similar. Clouds will approach from west to east as a warm front approaches the region in the afternoon.
Heading into Tuesday evening, a line of showers will likely begin to move into western New England as the front approaches. These showers will move from west to east across New England during the overnight hours, reaching eastern Maine by daybreak Wednesday.
Widespread showers are expected across northern New England, resulting in up to a quarter inch with some locations maybe seeing a half inch where steadier rain sets up. Shower activity will likely be much more limited across southern New England, with most areas seeing a tenth of an inch or less. This will not put much of a dent in the ongoing dry spell or fire risk, but any precipitation at this point will be welcome.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather overnight Tuesday to Wednesday morning:
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
Lingering showers will be possible across eastern Maine, but the rest of New England will be clearing out by sunrise Wednesday. Once the warm front crosses, New England will firmly be into the warm air amid a deeper southerly flow. An impressive ridge will set up for the eastern United States. This ridge will be centered to New England's southwest. Wednesday will be breezy, which will help transport the mild air into New England. Highs Wednesday are looking like the 60s north to low 70s south.
Halloween will likely be the warmest day of this brief warm-up. With more sunshine expected, good mixing and a continued southwest flow, temperatures won't have much of anything stopping them from soaring. On top of that, dry soils will also help the surface warm up. Widespread 70s across New England are likely with some of the warm spots of New England possibly touching 80°. Mild conditions will persist into Thursday evening and night, with 60s remaining in place even after sunset.
A cold front will approach and begin to cross New England Thursday night into Friday morning. This will likely set off another round of scattered light rain showers as it moves through. These showers would likely enter northern Vermont before midnight before pushing south and east during the overnight hours.
FRIDAY
The cold front will continue to move through New England on Friday, leading to a chance for a few showers and cooler temperatures. The showers with this front will likely be light and, like Tuesday night, won't amount to much for southern New England. Rain totals are also currently looking lighter across northern New England as well. Temperatures will likely remain on the mild side for the time of year, but will be down quite a bit from Thursday's warmth.
Below: Current weather map for Friday (November 1) showing the cold front crossing New England (with a light shower chance) along with expansive high pressure building to the west:
WEEKEND
High pressure is currently looking to settle in for much of the upcoming weekend with dry weather currently expected. Cooler air behind the front will also likely settle into New England by the weekend, allowing for temperatures to be more akin to early November averages. This ridge may break down early next week as a frontal system approaches. This system would be New England's next chance at widespread rainfall, but it's much too early to try to determine the extent of that.
Below: Current weather map for Saturday (November 2):
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