New England Weather This Week: Warming Up

This week will feature a very distinct warming trend with each day ticking up in both heat and humidity through Thursday. With the higher humidity will come the chance for showers and storms as well.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

The beginning of this week will act as a transition period from the cooler and raw weather to warmer and much more humid weather. High pressure just offshore will keep New England mainly dry today. This high pressure will also keep a cooler air mass aloft in place, with temperatures remaining around Sunday's levels. On Tuesday, a southwest flow aloft will begin to advect warmer air into the region.

With that said, flow at the surface will be more southeast due to the high pressure offshore. This will keep the onshore flow around and keep temperatures cooler near the coastal plain. Areas away from the coastal influence will be warmer. Overall, temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be very similar to each other.

Below: CMC showing expected temperatures mid-afternoon Tuesday:

As far as precipitation chances go, the overall threat of showers this afternoon has been reduced, but not completely eliminated, due to the influence of the high offshore. Later in the day Tuesday, a warm front will approach, which will allow for warm air advection at the surface. This will set up a very warm stretch for late this week. Heading into Tuesday evening and into the overnight, this warm air advection will allow for showers to develop from west to east across the region. These showers will be most numerous across interior New England.

Below: CMC showing potential weather Tuesday evening:

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY

Warm air advection will continue to ramp up through mid-week as a warm front crosses the region. This will bring about a strong southwest flow both aloft and at the surface, allowing both temperatures and humidity to step up. Both Wednesday and Thursday will see widespread 80s across the region. Thursday will be the hottest day of the week as temperatures aloft will peak on this day. Low 90s in the typical warm spots of southern New England (Merrimack and Connecticut River Valleys) are certainly possible.

On top of the heat, humidity levels will also get pumped up on the strong southwest flow. Dew points will likely reach their highest point of the season thus far. Each day will see a tick up in humidity levels through Thursday, when dew point values likely peak around the 70° mark.

As for precipitation chances, the warm air advection-related showers from Tuesday evening and overnight may carry over into Wednesday morning with spotty shower activity. Weak energy will pass through New England, allowing for more scattered shower activity to develop amid daytime heating in the afternoon. These showers will be most likely across western New England with eastern areas remaining drier.

Below: CMC showing potential weather Wednesday afternoon:

On Thursday, a frontal system will cross New England. A warm front will lift across New England, placing New England within the warm sector of the system. This warm front could trigger a round of morning showers or storms, mainly across western New England. With the region likely within a warm sector on Thursday, the atmosphere will likely be primed for scattered thunderstorms and/or showers Thursday afternoon or evening.

The timing of when the cold front crosses the region will determine coverage and timing of storms as well as how potent they’ll be. Should this front cross more toward the evening or overnight, the storm chance will be lowered. As of now, the western half of New England will have the best chance of seeing storms erupt in the afternoon. Exactly where the best storm chance will set up will come down to the timing of the cold front. There will be a chance for strong to severe storms given the overall setup.

FRIDAY

The cold front will have crossed New England by Friday. This front will be a rather strong one, with a big impact on both temperatures and humidity. Dew point levels will drop back into the 50s for many, erasing the very high humidity. Temperatures will likely fall back to seasonal averages for late-June, with 70s to low 80s dominating. A secondary cold front may swing through on Friday, igniting a few spot showers, but the day will likely end up mostly dry and calm.

WEEKEND

At this point, the weekend is looking mainly dry as ridging looks to build into New England's southwest. Saturday will likely end up similar to Friday with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity. Sunday may begin a trend back toward hot temperatures and higher humidity. Shower chances may increase on Sunday given the potential for warm air advection to restart. With that said, timing this a week out is difficult and subject to change. There are currently no strong signals for an organized storm to be around the region.

BEYOND

A ridge-in-the-east-trough-in-west-pattern may develop at the start of next week. Overall, it’s looking like we’ll be entering into a more consistent summer-like pattern with decent chances for high heat next week already being shown. With the late week cold front only knocking New England back down to seasonal average, it would appear summer weather has officially arrived for the season. We know it took some time for it to show up this year.