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Raw, Very Wet Sunday Incoming for New England: Impacts, Timing

"It's okay, we need the rain" is something that will be uttered across the region many times during small talk this weekend. People will tend to say this during small talk even when its not true, although, in this case, it's absolutely true. We are just now coming out of an unusually long dry spell for April. Much of the region is running below average on rainfall, Boston is just over two inches below average. Much of southern New England has entered "abnormally dry" in the US drought monitor. Southern Connecticut has entered a "moderate drought".

US Drought Monitor:

On Sunday, a cold front will push through New England. An area of low pressure will develop in response to the front and push right through New England. This area of low pressure is currently looking to track right through southern New England. The low will push through by Sunday morning, but the cold front will take all day to drag across the region. This set up will lead to a potentially widespread soaking rain across much of the region, minus eastern and northern Maine, who will likely only see light showers later Sunday and into Monday.

The heavy rain will begin in western New England around midnight tonight while scattered light showers develop in eastern New England. The heavy bands of rain will push eastward throughout the morning hours. Rain will be falling most of the day across the region. Isolated gusts of up to 40 mph are possible inside the heavier downpours. It's going to be a raw, nasty day.

Southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, southwest Maine, and all of southern New England have a good shot at seeing a half an inch to an inch and a half of rain. The east side of the Berkshires and western Worcester Hills will likely be the jackpot, with up to 2 inches possible. Very heavy downpours will likely develop within the system as it pushes through Sunday. Some thunderstorms are also possible, especially at the onset early Sunday morning in southern New England.

Some ponding in poor drainage is likely, however, a widespread flood threat is not expected. Rivers are forecast to crest below minor flood stage after the front pushes through. New England's recent summer preview decimated the snowpack at lower and middle elevations of northern New England, so snowmelt is not expected to contribute to flooding in Vermont and New Hampshire.

Temperatures are not going to move much from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon, which is expected with a storm like this. Highs on Saturday will be cool, in the low to mid 50s with cloudy skies. Temps will drop to the 40s to low 50s for overnight lows and climb only to the upper 40s to mid 50s for Sunday afternoon. With a breeze during this storm, it's not going to be a fun day to be outside.

The weather will stay cool and unsettled for much of next week. But, hey, it's okay, we need the rain.


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